New Delhi: As per the recent forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Monsoon 2021 is expected to produce normal amounts of rains across the country in August and September. However, the climate of North East India is changing in many unusual ways.
The north east India hosts some of the rainiest places on Earth resulting in rainwater being the major source of daily consumption there. During the monsoon months (June-September), heavy rainfall replenishes the rivers in North east India.
However, in past recent years, rainfall seems to be changing character. As per media reports, several states in the North East were suffering from high deficits in rainfall till August 2021. According to a research paper published in journal Current Science in January 2015, the probability of drought occurrence in the region was 54 per cent during 2000-2014.
On the other hand, there have been instances of major floods in the Brahmaputra which are known to cause inundation for more than 10 days at a stretch.
This not-so-usual cycle of flood and droughts in the region during same time period has reportedly begun to happen within a year. During the monsoon, rain come in and flood the region. In no time, drought rings in.
There seems to be a decrease in reliability on Rainfall in north east India. A research paper by P Jagannathan and HN Balme from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, analysed annual rainfall data from 105 places across India and concluded that rainfall in north east India was reliable in the past, till as recent as 1951.
Similar trends were analysed India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 2018 which found declining trend in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events during the monsoon season.
If the rainfall decreases and the flow of the springs diminish, the rest of the water systems get disturbed.