India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2024 monsoon season, with La Nina conditions expected to develop by August-September, as revealed on Monday.
However, while normal cumulative rainfall is expected, it doesn't ensure an even temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change exacerbating the variability of rain-bearing systems.
Climate scientists highlighted a decline in the number of rainy days alongside an increase in heavy rainfall events, leading to more frequent occurrences of droughts and floods.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the chief of the India Meteorological Department, mentioned at a press conference that based on data ranging from 1951 to 2023, India witnessed above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season on nine occasions following an El Nino event.
India Is Expected To See Above-Normal Rainfall From June To September: IMD
He stated that India is expected to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm). "Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon," he said.
"Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September," Mohapatra also said,PTI reported.
"According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced a new long-period average and normal...According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm," He highlighted, ANI quoted saying.
"La Nina conditions, associated with good Monsoon in India, will develop between August-September," Mohapatra underscored.
In 2023, an El Nino year, India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall of 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm. Before 2023, India witnessed "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four consecutive years.
El Nino conditions, characterised by periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
When predicting rainfall during the monsoon season, three major climatic phenomena are taken into account.
El Nino is the first, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the second, and the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass is the third. The snow cover affects the Indian monsoon by heating the landmass differently. The IOD is caused by differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean.
Approximately 70% of India's yearly rainfall is provided by the southwest monsoon, which is essential for the country's agricultural industry. Approximately 14% of the nation's GDP is derived from the agricultural sector.