"As per present estimation, the distribution of rainfall is likely to follow the climatological factors... we assess normal rainfall at 96 percent (plus/minus 5 per cent)," IANS quoted IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh as saying.
According to IMD the country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average.
"Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. Further, forecasts for the seasonal rainfall for the country suggest 38% probability for near normal rainfall scenario," IMD statement said.
A "normal monsoon" is one when rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the LPA. "Anything under 96 per cent is considered as "below normal". An “above normal” monsoon occurs when rainfall remains between 104% 110% of the LPA.
Rainfall above 110 per cent of the average would mean an excessive monsoon.
IMD's forecast is one of the most awaited weather forecasts in the country. A large portion of Indian farmers still depends upon rain-fall to carry out the agricultural activities. Farmers, who do not have access to irrigation, rely on monsoon rains to grow crops.
"A normal monsoon means steady rains, ample irrigation water availability and a good crop to our farmers. In all, a good year for everyone," Union Minister Harsh Vardhan said.
According to PTI, the IMD, last year, had made an initial forecast of "above normal" rainfall, but it belied its prediction and ended the seasons with normal precipitation.
India gets 70% of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon from June to September. The IMD further said that the second stage of forecast will be issued in the first week of June.
IMD issues various monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season. Operational forecasts for the Southwest Monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.