ABP CVoter Survey: Uttar Pradesh is scheduled to go to assembly elections next year along with other states such as Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, and Manipur. The contest for Uttar Pradesh is crucial given its strategic importance for political parties to maintain or establish dominance in the Hindi heartland.
Incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has become the longest-serving BJP CM in the state.
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While the chief minister has been lauded by the top BJP brass for the state government’s handling of the devastating Covid-19 second wave, visuals of dead bodies floating in the Ganga are still fresh in people's minds.
So will the BJP, in CM Adityanath’s leadership, repeat its March 2017 performance when it came to power in the most populous state with a massive majority?
Where do prominent Opposition parties such as Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stand? And will the Congress, which went to polls last time in alliance with the SP, make its presence felt under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi?
ABP, in partnership with CVoter, conducted a survey to understand the mood of the people of Uttar Pradesh ahead of the elections.
Vote Percentage
On the basis of the early projection, BJP is expected to see an increase of 0.4% in the percentage of votes. On the other hand, SP is projected to gain 6.6% of votes in the upcoming polls. Meanwhile, BSP can witness a significant setback with a decline in vote percentage (-6.5%) and the Congress (INC) is also expected to lose some of its shares as compared to 2017 (-1.2%).
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| BJP+ | 41.4 | 41.8 | 0.4 |
| SP+ | 23.6 | 30.2 | 6.6 |
| BSP | 22.2 | 15.7 | -6.5 |
| INC | 6.3 | 5.1 | -1.2 |
| Others | 6.5 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
Number Of Seats
In a concerning prediction for BJP, which aims to secure more seats than last time, the party can lose 62 seats while Akhilesh Yadav-led SP gains 65. BSP is projected to lose five seats and Congress can lose two.
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| BJP+ | 325 | 263 | -62 |
| SP+ | 48 | 113 | 65 |
| BSP | 19 | 14 | -5 |
| INC | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| Others | 4 | 8 | 4 |
In terms of the range of seats, the BJP is projected to win 259 to 267 seats and SP can secure 109 to 117 seats, followed by BSP with 12 to 16, Congress with 3 to 7, and others with 6 to 10.
Conclusion
While BJP may lose over 60 seats, it can still go on to form the government — thereby securing its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. Meanwhile, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's claim of winning over 400 seats is not likely to be realised in this election.
For BSP supremo Mayawati, another election loss could result in an impediment to remaining a relevant political force in the state.
The survey results as of now don't give much hope to the Congress, which is banking on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's mass appeal to bounce back in the state.
DISCLAIMER
The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 1st August 2021 to 2nd September 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.