ABP Cvoter Survey for Punjab Election 2022: The bugle for Assembly Elections 2022 has been blown for Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, and Punjab. As political parties spruce up strategies for their way forward, Punjab is already a step ahead and ticket distribution is an ongoing process.
With such an advanced stage of electioneering, Punjab is a multi-cornered political ground with each major party having a role to play. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and Congress all have similar level of stakes in the upcoming Punjab Assembly elections.
In the 117-member Assembly, Congress bagged 77 seats during the 2017 polls to become the ruling party, while AAP bagged 20 seats. SAD and BJP alliance had secured 18 seats to be the third-largest front last time around.
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A lot has happened since the 2017 Punjab Assembly elections. The SAD-BJP alliance broke last year over farmers' protests against the three agriculture laws introduced by the Centre. SAD is going to the polls in alliance with the BSP this time.
The Congress, which looked stable after a comfortable victory in 2017, now has factions — one supporting current CM Amarinder Singh and the other in the camp of newly appointed Congress Pradesh Committee chief Navjot Singh Sidhu.
Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP might not have been in the reckoning last time, but it seems they are certainly the most popular ones this time with the party announcing ro bring a number of welfare schemes if voted to power.
With all the buzz happening in the state, ABP News joined with CVoter to conduct a survey and understand what the voters may like next year.
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The ABP CVoter Survey has found that the ruling Congress will lose a chunk of voters in the upcoming assembly polls. As per the survey, the voter share projection for Congress is believed to be at 28.8%. The Congress had garnered 38.5% of vote share in the 2017 Assembly elections.
The ABP CVoter Survey suggests that the Aam Aadmi Party has gained people's interest as the data suggests an 11.4% rise in vote share from 2016 assembly polls. As per the survey, AAP will get 35.1% of the total votes in the state.
The Shiromani Akali Dal has suffered as well and shows a dip of 3.4% in vote share. The ABP CVoter Survey predicts 21.8% of vote share to SAD as opposed to 25.2% in the 2017 Punjab assembly polls.
Meanwhile, BJP has gained in the vote share.
ABP-CVoter Survey: September 2021 Predictions For Punjab
| Alliance Votes | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| INC | 38.5 | 28.8 | -9.7 |
| SAD | 25.2 | 21.8 | -3.4 |
| AAP | 23.7 | 35.1 | 11.4 |
| BJP | 5.4 | 7.3 | 1.9 |
| OTHERS | 7.2 | 7.0 | -0.2 |
| TOTAL | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
When it comes to seats, it looks like Congress has lost about 35, bringing the number down to 42 from 77. As per the survey, SAD gained 5 seats from 2016's results putting the 2021 prediction to 20.
With a bold prediction of 55 seats as per the ABP CVoter survey, AAP saw the biggest, gaining 35 seats from the 2016 Assembly Election.
| Alliance Seats | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Change |
| INC | 77 | 42 | -35 |
| SAD | 15 | 20 | 5 |
| AAP | 20 | 55 | 35 |
| BJP | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| OTHERS | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| TOTAL | 117 | 117 | 0 |
The survey data projects that the range of seats for the Indian National Congress is from 38 to 46, while for AAP it is from 51 to 57.
Meanwhile, SAD is likely to have a range from 16 to 24. For BJP it has been projected to get 1 seat.
| Parties Seats Projection Range | From | To |
| INC | 38 | 46 |
| SAD | 16 | 24 |
| AAP | 51 | 57 |
| BJP | 0 | 1 |
| OTHERS | 0 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 117 | |
DISCLAIMER
The present opinion poll/survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 1st August 2021 to 2nd September 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.