ABP-Cvoter Opinion Poll: BJP Likely To Lose Seats In Strongholds Of Coastal Karnataka And Mumbai-Karnataka

ABP Cvoter Karnataka Opinion Poll: Congress is likely to get anywhere between 115-127 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The majority mark for a party to stake claim to form a government is 113.

Congress is likely to get a simple majority on its own in Karnataka and dislodge BJP in the only southern state it is in power if the opinion poll conducted by ABP-CVoter is to be believed. The survey has indicated that Congress is likely to get anywhere between 115-127 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The majority mark for a party to stake claim to form a government is 113.

The BJP, which was the single largest party in the House in the 2018 election winning 104 seats, is expected to bag 68-80 seats this time with a vote share of 34.7 per cent. Deve Gowda's JD(S), which won 37 seats in the last election, is expected to see a dip and win 23-35 seats in the 2023 polls.

In the 2018 election, Deve Gowda's son HD Kumaraswamy became the CM after JD(S) entered into a post-poll alliance with the Congress. No party secured a majority in that election. However, the government lasted barely a year, with BJP weaning away MLAs, leading to the collapse of the JD(S)-Congress government in July 2019.

The projected rise in the Congress' seat tally, as per the survey, becomes more clearer when we see the region-wise breakdown of numbers.

Karnataka has 224 constituencies spanning six regions -- Bengaluru, Central, Coastal, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Mumbai-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka or Old Mysore region. Mumbai-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka are the largest regions of the state and consist of 50 and 51 Assembly seats respectively.

As per the ABP-CVoter survey, Congress is expected to bag 25-29 seats in the Mumbai-Karnataka region, up from the 17 it won in 2018. On the other hand, BJP, which secured 30 seats in this region in 2018, is likely to see a dip in its tally. The saffron party is expected to get 21-25 seats.

In the Old Mysore region, base of the Vokkaligas, the JD(S) is likely to get the maximum seats, winning 26-27 seats. It is not a surprise as former Prime Minister and also former Chief Minister of Karnataka HD Devegowda hails from this community and from this region. Vokkaligas have been consistently and solidly backing JD(S).

The Congress is likely to bag anywhere between 24-28 seats in this region, up from the 17 it got in 2018. Congress state president DK Shivakumar is from this region and also belongs to the Vokkaliga community.

The BJP is again likely to fare poorly here and is projected to win 1-5 seats. It won nine seats in the last polls.

Coastal Karnataka is the smallest region in the state, comprising 21 Assembly seats. In the last Assembly election in 2018, the BJP received 51 per cent votes and won 18 seats in this region. This time, the saffron party is expected to see a decrease in tally and is expected to get 9-13 seats. The Congress is projected to come second with 8-12 seats in its kitty.

Another region where the BJP performed very well in the last election was central Karnataka. Here, the party won 24 out of 35 assembly seats with 43 per cent vote share. However, in 2023, as per the ABP survey, BJP will win anywhere between 12-16 seats. The Congress is expected to be the biggest gainer and bag 18-22 seats, with a vote share of 41 per cent.

The BJP is expected to maintain its tally or see a marginal dip in the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. As per the survey, BJP is projected to bag 8-12 seats in the region while Congress may get 19-23 seats. In the last polls, BJP and Congress secured 12 and 15 seats respectively.

Both the Congress and BJP are not likely to see drastic changes in their fortunes in the Bengaluru region, which comprises mainly urban and semi-urban voters. The Bengaluru city region, home to IT and several multinational companies, has five rural and about 25 urban and semi-urban seats.

Congress is likely to see no loss in the number of seats compared to 2018 assembly elections, where it won 17 seats. The BJP had bagged 11 seats. In the 2023 polls, the survey predicted that Congress will win anywhere between 15-19 seats and BJP 11-15 seats.

[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter from February 26 to March 26. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 24,759 across Karnataka. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]