Why Are Current Covid-19 Deaths Not As High As Those During Delta Wave? Know What Experts Say

The current Covid-19 death rate in India is 1.19 per cent, which is quite less compared to that during the Delta wave. Also, hospitalisation has not increased due to XBB.1.16 Omicron subvariant.

Covid-19 cases in India have been increasing of late due to the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.16. However, the current hospitalisation and death rates due to Covid-19 are less compared to those during the Delta wave, or the second wave of Covid-19.

India saw a huge number of Covid-19 deaths during the Delta wave, which gripped the country from April to June 2021. During the Delta wave, Covid-19 claimed about 2,40,000 lives in India, according to the United Nations.

The current Covid-19 death rate in India is 1.19 per cent, which is quite less compared to that during the Delta wave. 

Covid-19 hospitalisation rate in India during the Delta wave was in the range of 20 to 23 per cent. Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said in April 2023 that XBB.1.16 has not increased hospitalisation. 

The current Covid-19 recovery rate in India is 98.74 per cent. 

Why are current Covid-19 hospitalisation and death rates less compared to those during Delta wave?

According to experts, the current Covid-19 deaths and hospitalisations are less compared to those during the Delta wave because the majority of the people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are experiencing mild symptoms and are recovering by isolating themselves at home. Most importantly, a greater number of people are vaccinated against Covid-19 than that during the Delta wave. While XBB.1.16 has a faster transmission rate than the Delta variant, the former is not as dangerous as the latter, and does not cause severe disease. 

Since infection caused by XBB.1.16 is not as severe as that caused by the Delta variant, hospitalisation rates are less.

“XBB.1.16  is much more infectious than other variants. It spreads very fast and can damage the immune system. But the good thing is that hospitalisations are very less because infection caused by this variant is not as severe as the infection caused by the Delta variant,” Dr Sanjay Dhall, Director, Internal Medicine, Max Super Speciality Hospital, Shalimar Bagh, told ABP Live.

According to experts, Covid-19 vaccines have been found to be effective even against new variants of SARS-CoV-2. They have been shown to effectively prevent severe illness and death.

“There are a few potential explanations for why there are more Covid-19 cases now than there were during the Delta wave, but fewer hospitalisations and fatalities. One explanation could be that more individuals are immunised against Covid-19 today than during the Delta wave. Vaccines have been shown to be effective even against new SARS-CoV-2 variants, and have been found to be successful at preventing serious illness and death,” Dr Anurag Saxena, HOD, Internal Medicine, Primus Super Speciality Hospital, New Delhi, told ABP Live.

Dr Saxena also said that XBB.1.16 is not as dangerous as the Delta variant. Although it spreads more easily, it does not have as serious an effect as the Delta variant, and hence, does not lead to too many hospitalisation cases.

Individuals aged above 60 years of age constitute a large proportion of the current Covid-19 cases. Since these individuals have comorbidities such as diabetes, chronic kidney disease and heart disease, they are more prone to SARS-CoV-2 infection. This explains the current surge in Covid-19 cases. However, the deaths and hospitalisations are less because XBB.1.16 causes mild disease. As a result, they are recovering under home isolation.

“Despite the recent increase in Covid-19 cases and concerns about a new sub-variant, the majority of patients are experiencing mild symptoms and recovering under home isolation. The surge has led to a rise in the country's active case load, with a higher number of cases among individuals above the age of 60 years who have pre-existing conditions such as diabetes and chronic kidney disease,” Dr Babina NM, Chief Medical officer, Jindal Naturecure Institute, Bangalore, told ABP Live.

According to Dr NM, some individuals have tested positive for Covid-19 despite being fully vaccinated or having previous infections with the Delta or Omicron variants. However, their symptoms are mild.

“Widespread vaccination, booster shots, improved treatments, and public health measures are contributing to fewer deaths and hospitalisations,” Dr Dipu TS, Associate Professor, Division of Infectious Diseases, Amrita Hospital, told ABP Live.

Due to natural selection, less virulent strains that transmit easily without raising alarm are favoured, according to Dr TS.