NEW DELHI: Months after facing defeat in Rajasthan assembly polls last year, the BJP is all set to sweep the desert state in the coming Lok Sabha elections by winning 19 out of the 25 seats, a survey of journalists commission by ABP News predicted on Tuesday. According to the survey, the Congress is unlikely to reap the advantage of its 2018 assembly elections victory over the saffron party in the general elections due to several reasons. However, the main opposition party this time may wrest six seats from the BJP, which captured all 25 constituencies in 2014 elections.


Among the eight VIP seats, the BJP is likely to win five: Jaipur, Jaipur Rural, Jhalawar, Bikaner and Pali. The Congress may take Jodhpur, Alwar and Barmer seats.

Besides these five seats, the BJP is also projected to win in Ganganagar, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Bharatpur, Kota, Bhilwara, Rajsamand and Chittorgarh. The ruling party is also slated to retain Banswara, Udaipur, Nagaur, Ajmer, Dausa and Jalore constituencies.

The six Lok Sabha seats that the Congress may wrest from the BJP are: Jodhpur, Barmer, Alwar, Sikar, Karauli–Dholpur and Tonk–Sawai Madhopur.


In 2018, the Congress emerged as the single largest party in Rajasthan and took its seat tally to 99 in the 200-member assembly from 21 in 2013. The party received the support of the BSP and also some independents, to form the government. The BJP, which won 163 seats in 2013 assembly elections was reduced to 73. Later, in January, the Congress won the Ramgarh Assembly seat in bypolls, touching the 100 mark.

Lok Sabha elections will be held in two phases in Rajasthan where 13 constituencies will go to polls on April 29 and remaining 12 seats on May 6.

As per the schedule, Tonk-Sawaimadhopur, Ajmer, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, Kota and Jhalawar-Baran will go to poll on April 29. While elections in Ganganagar, Bikaner, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Jaipur rural, Jaipur, Alwar, Bharatpur, Karauli-Dholpur, Dausa and Nagaur will take place in second phase on May 6.

There are 4.86 crore voters in the state.

How Rajasthan voted in previous three Lok Sabha elections.

It has normally been a two-party contest in the state.

In the 2014 elections, the BJP under the Modi wave won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan with 55.60 per cent vote share. The Congress and the BJP contested on all 20 seats, while the Aam Aami Party fought on 17, and the Bahujan Samaj Party on 18 seats.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won 20 seats with 47.19 per cent vote share and the BJP four with 36.57 per cent vote share, and one seat (Dausa) was won by an Independent.

In the 2004 general elections, the BJP swept that state by winning 21 seats. The vote share of the saffron party was 49.01 per cent. The Congress managed the remaining four seats with 41.42 per cent votes.