ABP-CVoter Survey: Will BJP Retain Power In Gujarat & Himachal? Know Preferred CM Faces | Key Takeaways
Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh ABP CVoter Opinion Poll 2022: Know which party appears to be in better position to form governments in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as per early opinion polls.
ABP CVoter Opinion Poll 2022: After assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur, all eyes are on Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as both states are set to go to polls before the end of this year.
While the Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule, the political parties have begun their aggressive campaigning to woo voters. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to retain power, with the main opposition coming from the Congress, and new entrant AAP is also trying to dislodge the ruling dispensation.
Will voters stay with the ruling BJP or are they looking for a change this time around?
To understand the mood of the voters ahead of the 2022 assembly election, ABP News teamed up with CVoter to conduct opinion polls in the election-bound states. With seat projections, vote share percentage, and ground assessment done over a period of time, ABP-CVoter have come out with the key findings of the latest opinion poll.
Gujarat Election 2022
In Gujarat, the ruling BJP has retained power for over two decades and it appears to be comfortably crossing the majority mark this time also as the CVoter survey projects the party to secure 135 to 143 seats, out of the total 182. The Congress is a distant second at 36 to 44 seats while the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is expected to secure 0 to 2 seats despite aggressive campaigning.
In terms of vote percentage, the BJP is projected to secure a 46.8% vote share in this election, followed by the Congress at 32.3%, and the AAP at 17.4%
Incumbent CM Bhupendra Patel emerged as the most preferred chief ministerial candidate, followed by the AAP that is yet to announce its CM face. Former CM Vijay Rupani was the third-most preferred face.
Himachal Pradesh Election 2022
In Himachal Pradesh too, the ruling BJP is projected to win the polls with 37 to 45 seats, out of the total 68, coming to its kitty, while the Congress may secure 21 to 20 seats. While the ruling party can continue to remain in power, it may see a decline in its vote share. Meanwhile, the AAP does not appear to be a major player in the hill state as it is projected to win 0 to 1 seat as per the CVoter survey.
In terms of percentage, the BJP is projected to secure a 45.2% vote share in this election, followed by the Congress at 33.9%, and the AAP can secure 9.5% of the votes.
As with Gujarat, the incumbent Chief Minister (Jairam Thakur) appears to be the most prominent CM face in Himachal, followed by BJP leader-Union Minister Anurag Thakur and Congress party's Pratibha Singh.
Important Concerns For Voters
Notably, unemployment and concerns pertaining to electricity, water, and roads are what voters deem as the most important issues for the polls in both states.
On an interesting note, 39.9% of voters in Gujarat said they are angry with the ruling dispensation but do not want to change the government, but 33.9% said they are angry and want a new government, and 26.2% said they are not angry and do not want the government to change.
Even as the BJP is projected to retain Himachal Pradesh, 45.4% of voters said they were unsatisfied and wanted to see a new government, 32.5% people said they are angry but do not want to change the government, and 22.2% said they were not angry and wanted to continue with the present dispensation.
The tenures of the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assemblies will end on January 8, 2023, and February 23, 2023, respectively, and the poll authority can hold elections anytime within six months of the expiry of the five-year term of any House.
A high-level team of the Election Commission of India (ECI) led by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar recently visited Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat to review poll preparedness.
The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1998 and the main opposition Congress came close to defeating it in the previous assembly elections in 2017.
In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP defeated the Congress in 2017 to come to power.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 68,638 across 2 states (Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]
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