The upcoming Assembly elections in five states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana — in a way, will be a referendum on whether the ‘Modi magic’ still holds or if Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been able make some inroads into the hearts and minds of voters.


The outcome of the state polls, and, more importantly, an electoral determination as to whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to be the BJP’s biggest vote catcher, will be a pointer to which way the political headwinds are blowing ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha polls.


A survey by ABP, in association with CVoter, has now attempted to throw some light into how the voters rate PM Modi and Rahul Gandhi, their individual charisma and popularity, as well as on other yardsticks.


During the survey, the voters in the five poll-bound states were asked to pick between PM Modi and Rahul as the most suitable PM candidate for the country and also judge them on their work.


Asked about their opinion on the work done under the leadership of PM Modi, in Telangana, 36.2 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied, 30.3 percent said somewhat satisfied, 29.8 percent said they were not at all satisfied, and 3.8 percent said they did not have an opinion.


In Rajasthan, 60.5 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied, 21.1 percent said satisfied to some extent, 17.4 percent not at all satisfied, while 1 percent chose not to answer.


In poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, 58.5 percent said they were very satisfied, 18.7 percent said they were satisfied to some extent, 22.4 percent said they were not satisfied at all, while 0.4 percent said they did not have any opinion on the subject.


In Chhattisgarh, 57.8 percent said they were very satisfied, 25 percent said they were somewhat satisfied, 17 percent of the voters voiced strong dissatisfaction, while 0.2 percent chose not to answer.


In the northeast state of Mizoram, 30.2 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied with the work done by PM Modi, 30.3 percent said they were satisfied to some extent, 38.8 percent they were not at all satisfied, while 0.7 percent of those surveyed did not have an opinion.


Quizzed on whether they were satisfied by the work done by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, 39.2 percent of the voters in poll-bound Telangana said they were very satisfied, 22.9 percent said they were satisfied to some extent, 20.9 percent said not at all satisfied, while 17 percent said they did not have an opinion.


In Congress-ruled Rajasthan, 32.1 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied, 14.6 percent they were satisfied to some extent, 46 percent voiced their dissatisfaction, while 7.3 percent said they did not have an opinion.


In Madhya Pradesh, 31 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied, 19.8 percent said they were satisfied to some extent, 42.4 percent said they were not at all satisfied, 6.9 percent said they did not have an opinion.


In Chhattisgarh, 29 percent said they were very satisfied, 24.7 percent of the voters said they were somewhat satisfied, 39.9 percent said they were not at all satisfied, while 6.4 percent said they did not have any opinion on the subject.


In Mizoram, 32.5 percent of the voters said they were very satisfied by the work done by the Congress leader, 37.3 percent said they were satisfied to some extent, 19.1 percent expressed dissatisfaction, 11.1 percent said they did not have an opinion.


Asked about their most preferred Prime Ministerial candidate, 32.5 percent of the voters from Telangana, 19.7 percent from Rajasthan, 18.8 percent from Madhya Pradesh, 17.3 percent from Chhattisgarh, and 35.7 percent from Mizoram said they wanted Rahul Gandhi to hold the top post.


Meanwhile, 38.1 percent of those surveyed from Telangana, 63.8 percent from Rajasthan, 59.1 percent from Madhya Pradesh, 59.6 percent from Chhattisgarh and 46.3 percent from Mizoram said they wanted PM Modi to remain in power for the third term.


[Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll CATI interviews  conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters (sample size 63,516). The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.]