In a bid to win the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all major parties are gearing up for an intense political battle. While national politics is in focus, a crucial question looms and that is will the BJP be able to make significant inroads in West Bengal, a state that witnessed a fierce political contest during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections?
A recent opinion poll conducted by ABP News, in association with CVoter, sought to find out from voters whether they think Mamata Banerjee-led TMC would face a tough fight from the BJP in the former's home turf Bengal during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In response to this question, a majority (54%) of respondents affirmed that Mamata Banerjee would indeed face a challenge from the BJP in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, 36% expressed skepticism, stating that the BJP would not pose a significant challenge. The remaining 10% of respondents said they were uncertain about the political dynamics in the state.
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2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Social Groups On If BJP Can Give A Tough Fight To TMC In West Bengal
The survey delved deeper into the opinions of various social groups in West Bengal, revealing diverse perspectives on whether the BJP can pose a challenging fight for the TMC in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
| Groups | Yes | No | Don't know/Can't say anything |
| Others | 68.0% | 27.4% | 4.6% |
| SC (Scheduled Caste/Dalits) | 51.8% | 37.4% | 10.8% |
| OBC (Other Backward Classes) | 62.6% | 29.0% | 8.3% |
| Upper Caste Hindus | 59.7% | 29.4% | 10.9% |
| Muslim | 29.2% | 58.5% | 12.2% |
| Christians | 47.1% | 43.0% | 9.9% |
| Sikhs | 31.2% | 47.1% | 21.7% |
The percentage of respondents who said that the BJP can be a tough challenger for the TMC in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election was highest among the Others category, followed by the OBCs, Upper Caste Hindus, and SCs. Voters who disagreed with this notion were highest among Muslims, Sikhs, and Christians.
These statistics indicate a varied response from different demographic segments, highlighting the complexity of political opinions in the state.
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The BJP Challenge For CM Mamata Banerjee In West Bengal
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP made significant strides in West Bengal, securing approximately 39% of the votes. The party's aggressive campaigning, marked by 34 rallies led by Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, translated into victory on 18 out of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats, a significant increase from the previous poll tally of just 3. The Trinamool Congress, in contrast, won 22 seats, losing ground in several constituencies considered strongholds.
The 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections proved to be a turning point, with the BJP securing 74 seats, a substantial increase from its previous tally of 3 seats. Mamata Banerjee, realising the BJP's growing influence, has adjusted her political strategy, acknowledging that the Congress and CPI(M) are not immediate threats. Instead, she recognises the need to address the BJP's rise to stay relevant in national politics.
Mamata Banerjee's recent proposal to nominate Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge for the prime ministerial position indicates a shift in her political approach. The 2024 elections present Mamata with an opportunity to play a crucial role as the "kingmaker" in the I.N.D.I.A bloc, potentially influencing national politics.
As CM Mamata grapples with the BJP's challenge in West Bengal, the political landscape promises to be dynamic and closely watched in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The stakes are high for Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress, as they strive to maintain their dominance in Bengal while trying to secure more influence in national politics.
[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level Vote Share projection with 95% Confidence interval.]