RBI's Interest Rate Decision, PMI Data, Currency Movements To Drive Markets Ahead, Say Analysts

The experts said that investors will be keen to see the positive trajectory of the markets continue after the indices closed the 2023-24 fiscal year on a strong note

The interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India, macroeconomic data, and global trends will influence the markets in the week, analysts noted. The experts said that investors will be keen to see the positive trajectory of the markets continue after the indices closed the 2023-24 fiscal year on a strong note. 

Further, the analysts stated that foreign investors’ trading activity, fluctuations in the currency movements, and the trend in the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, will also drive trading in the equity markets, reported PTI. Notably, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in FY24, while the NSE Nifty50 climbed 4,967.15 points or 28.61 per cent. 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in the week on April 3. The banking regulator will announce its interest rate decision after the three-day meeting concludes on April 5. 

Auto stocks will remain in focus in the week as the firms are expected to reveal their monthly sales numbers for March from Monday onwards. Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said, “Additionally, people will be watching how the rupee fares against the dollar and keeping a tab on crude oil prices. They will also be keeping an eye on investments made by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs).”

Gour added that US Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also deliver his speech on April 3, 2024 and the US will declare its manufacturing PMI data on Monday. “US non-farm payrolls data and the unemployment rate for March will be announced on April 5. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence markets' sentiment,” he noted.

Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior VP, Master Capital Services Ltd, stated, “The outlook for the market will be guided by major global and domestic economic data, India automobile sales, US and India manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), US job openings, factory orders and US non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate. The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee will meet from April 3-5, 2024, and decide on policy rates. The monetary policy statement will provide important cues on the economy, inflation, and interest rates.”

Elaborating on market movements further, Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd, noted, “We expect volatility to remain high this week too, citing the scheduled MPC's policy meeting. On the global front, participants would continue to take cues from the US markets, which are showing noticeable resilience.”