New Delhi: As the world is becoming warmer, India is becoming more vulnerable because of the extreme heat in this part of the globe.
A study by The Lancet in October 2021 showed that India is one of the five countries in the world whose vulnerable populations had the most exposure to extreme heat over the past five years.
Hottest in 122 years
India logged record temperatures in March this year. The rising temperature broke all records making it the hottest month in 122 years since records began.
The warmest March India witnessed was in the year way back in 1901.
Labour loss due to rising temperature
Extreme heat and rising humidity because of global warming have prompted serious loss of labour hours across the world. India is one of the most affected countries due to heat exposure.
According to a paper published in Nature Journal in December 2021, India lost 101 billion (10,100 crore) hours per year, which is the highest in the world.
Main work affected
During summer, agricultural work and construction work will become almost impossible to perform safely during afternoon hours in several places across the country because of severe heat and humid conditions.
Loss of the equivalent work hour due to heat
The loss of labour is equivalent of the work done by around 3.5 crore people each working an eight-hour day in a year.
Projection of India - Working hours lost to heat stress by 2030
|
Sector |
Working hours loss to heat stress (%) - Projection by 2030 |
|
Agriculture |
9.04 |
|
Manufacturing |
5.29 |
|
Construction |
9.04 |
|
Services |
1.48 |
Loss of labour in agriculture
The Lancet said, in 2020, India lost a total of 67 billion (6,700 crore) agriculture labour hours. This has resulted in a reduction of Rs 2.9 lakh crore ($39 billion) at 2020 rates.
Forecast of rising heat and loss to Indian economy
According to McKinsey report in 2020, by 2030, an average loss in daylight working hours could put between 2.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) at risk annually.
The report stated that extreme heat poses risk to Rs 19.17 lakh crore ($250 billion) to India’s GDP by 2030.
By 2030, if situation continues to deteriorate, there will be Rs 5,242 crore per day loss of GDP in India, while the hourly loss will be Rs 22 lakh.
Rise of global temperature and loss to India
A report published by the think tank of Overseas Development Institute (ODI) said if the average global temperature rise by 1 degree Celsius, the resulting decline in agricultural productivity, rise in sea levels, and negative health outcomes are projected to cost India about 3 per cent of its GDP.
Climate-related risks to Indian agriculture
According to IPCC Report in 2022, rice production can decrease from 10 per cent to 30 per cent, assuming a range of temperature increase from 1 degree Celsius to 4 degree Celsius.
Barring rice, maize production too will take a hit. The output can go down from 25 per cent to 70 per cent if a range of temperature increase from 1 degree Celsius to 4 degree Celsius.