By Vikram Subburaj
In early April 2025, as cherry blossoms bloomed across Washington, financial markets were in no mood to celebrate. The world watched as US President Donald Trump once again upended global trade dynamics — this time with a sweeping set of tariffs aimed mostly at China and, by extension, anyone caught in the crossfire.
What Happened
Crypto investors, never far from the storm’s edge, braced for impact. Bitcoin fell swiftly, dropping to around $82,000 and wiping out weeks of quiet gains. Ethereum and other altcoins followed suit. Traditional safe havens like gold and the US dollar attracted flight capital. It felt like déjà vu — another episode where geopolitical tension spilt into the decentralised digital markets that were supposed to be, in theory, immune.
Sudden Shift
But just days later, in a twist familiar to seasoned traders, the winds shifted. Hints of tariff de-escalation — first from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, then from Trump himself — sent a fresh pulse through the markets. By mid-April, Bitcoin had surged past $93,000, its highest since March, with Ethereum not far behind.
Welcome to the new world order of crypto investing — one that sits at the volatile intersection of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and technology.
Tariffs as Triggers: When Politics Rattles Portfolios
Trade wars are not fought with bullets — they’re fought with tariffs, rhetoric, and uncertainty. And uncertainty is the true enemy of markets.
For crypto investors, Trump’s tariff announcements have proven to be more than background noise. They are direct catalysts for volatility. On the way in, they inspire fear and risk aversion. On the way out, they reignite their risk appetite.
The April 2025 episode is a case in point. Tariffs climbing to 145% led to the rapid unwinding of positions. But even the hint of a rollback — a promise, not a policy — was enough to reverse the tide.
This tells us something important: tariffs do not just affect steel and semiconductors — they shape sentiment. And in a market like crypto, where psychology often outweighs fundamentals, that is everything.
But investors beware — tariff relief is rarely permanent. Even if this phase ends, future flare-ups are all but guaranteed in an increasingly multipolar world.
Inflation, Rates, and Risk: Reading the Macro Signals
Zoom out from trade policy, and the broader economic canvas reveals more challenges. Tariffs drive up import prices, fanning the flames of inflation. Inflation, in turn, pressures central banks to raise interest rates, tightening liquidity and reducing appetite for speculative assets like crypto.
Indeed, in early 2025, CPI readings edged higher than expected, and the US Federal Reserve responded with guarded language. That was enough to make crypto markets jittery.
Still, macro does not deal in binaries. While inflation creates headwinds, slowing global growth, projected at 3.1% to 3.3% for 2025, is expected to eventually pull central banks back toward accommodation. If and when rate cuts resume, crypto will likely find a friend in liquidity again.
Beyond Bitcoin: Correlations, Contrasts, and Crosswinds
Another complexity for investors in this climate is understanding asset behaviour. Bitcoin, long pitched as a store of value, now exhibits characteristics of both gold and tech. Its correlation with NASDAQ sits at about 40%, revealing how it dances between being a hedge and a high-beta asset.
Altcoins, however, behave more like growth stocks. Ethereum, Solana, and other Layer-1 chains track innovation narratives. They outperform when capital is abundant and optimism is high. But they also suffer more in downturns, subject to the whims of sentiment and the reality of developer runway.
The implication for investors is clear: not all crypto is created equal. Bitcoin may offer stability during macro turbulence, but altcoins can be powerful vehicles in bullish tech-driven phases.
Strategic Takeaways: Investing Amid the Noise
So how should investors navigate this complex and shifting landscape? Here are the key things to do:
- Accept short-term volatility. In 2025, risk-off episodes linked to tariffs, inflation prints, and central bank speeches will continue. These are not anomalies — they’re the environment.
- Position for long-term opportunity. If tariffs ease and inflation cools, monetary easing could return, and crypto could re-enter a phase of sustained growth. The post-COVID bull run is a case study in how quickly tides can turn.
- Differentiate your assets. Bitcoin’s narrative as a hedge remains intact, but it will still dip with the dollar and rise with liquidity. Altcoins need more discerning analysis — invest not in names, but in use cases.
- Track macro indicators. CPI data, Fed meetings, GDP releases, and trade negotiations are no longer “outside” the crypto universe. They are embedded in its core. An investor who watches only the blockchain is missing half the picture.
Final Thoughts: A Market Growing Up
The 2025 crypto market is no longer a sideshow. It is a reflection of global anxiety, ambition, and adaptation. Tariffs may rattle us. Inflation may weigh on us. But each shock also strengthens the market’s resolve. The era of siloed investing could be over. Crypto investors must now be students of global economics, not just blockchain enthusiasts. And that’s a good thing. Because the more we understand the levers shaping this market, the more strategic — and successful — we can be.
(The author is the CEO of Giottus Crypto Platform)
Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.