AISTA Estimates Sugar Production For 2023-24 Season To Be 4% Lower At 31.6 Million Tonne

The body said that sugar production in UP remained higher end at 11.7 million tonne for the 2023-24 season, while it was lower at 9.6 million tonne in Maharashtra and 4.7 million tonne in Karnataka

India’s sugar production is estimated to touch nearly 31.6 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season (October-September), marking a decline of 4 per cent against the previous season, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said, releasing the first production estimates. This estimate excluded the diversion of sucrose of nearly 2 million tonne fo ethanol production. 

The sugar trade body noted that with the estimated sugar production at 31.6 million tonne, and an opening stock of 5.7 million tonne, the sugar availability in India is expected to reach 37.3 million tonne, against the estimated domestic consumption of 29 million tonne. For the 2023-24 season, the closing sugar stock would stand around 8.2 million tonne, against the sugar production of 32.9 million tonne in the earlier 2022-23 season, reported PTI citing the data. 

Elaborating on the projections, Praful Vithalani, Chairman, AISTA, said, “The first estimate has been made taking into account the quantum of sugarcane crushed and yield and recovery rates achieved so far; the remaining standing crop and the diversions of sucrose allowed for production of ethanol. The production estimates are subject to three per cent variation.”

The association stated that sugar production in Uttar Pradesh remained on the higher end at 11.7 million tonne for the 2023-24 season, while it was lower at 9.6 million tonne in Maharashtra and 4.7 million tonne in Karnataka. In the previous season, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh stood at 10.7 million tonne. 

“The diversion of cane to Gur and Khandsari units in Uttar Pradesh is more than the last season, as they are giving higher cane prices to farmers. Overall, the crop is good in UP and the mills are expected to operate till March-end and may be till the first fortnight of April due to climate change, foggy weather and lower sunshine,” the sugar body said. 

The sugar production in Maharashtra in the current season is anticipated to be lower than the production in the previous season of 10.7 million tonne. Notably, Maharashtra is the largest sugar-producing state in the country. Commenting on the production trend in the state, the AISTA noted, “The unseasonal rains in Maharashtra have increased the yield and sucrose content. Further, the unregistered cane has also increased the availability of sugarcane which is likely to result in more sugar production than initially expected. Due to the problem of finding harvesting labour, the season will prolong in the state. This will give more time for standing sugarcane to mature, increasing the yield and sucrose content in cane. Most of the mills in Maharashtra are now expected to operate till March-end.”

For the country’s third-largest sugar-producing state, Karnataka, the production estimates stood lower at 4.7 million tonne in 2023-24, against the 5.6 million tonne produced in the previous season. The sugar trade body said that it feared at the beginning of the season that sugar production would reduce drastically owing to drought. It also anticipated the season to be of short duration of nearly 80-90 days. 

“Thanks to unseasonal rains in November which helped to improve yield as well as sucrose content in cane. The initial estimate of the market in November was that Karnataka would produce 3.6-3.7 million tonnes of sugar which now stands at 4.7 million tonnes. The mills in Karnataka are expected to operate till February-end though some mills, especially mills which have increased the capacity will operate in March also,” the AISTA noted. 

Regarding the sugar production estimates, the association stated that it doesn’t anticipate any estimates before or immediately after the season starts, as the yield and recovery rate in the season in the starting days of the crushing doesn’t firm up. “Any estimate made before or immediately after the crushing starts is subject to large variation, say 15-20 per cent, therefore the estimates made in January are better and more reliable,” it added.