Telangana votes on November 30 in the final leg of the five-state elections that started on November 7. All eyes are on Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, KCR as he is popularly known, to see if he can win a record third term, a feat not repeated in any South Indian state since 1980. Or Congress will trump his Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), riding on a perceived anti-incumbency wave? Telangana saw Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi holding roadshows in the last leg of campaigning, while KCR and KT Rama Rao canvassed for their candidates.
The BJP also ran a spirited campaign in the last few days under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. With opinion polls suggesting a cliffhanger of a contest, the BJP hopes to emerge as a kingmaker of sorts. Sharp exchanges between leaders, peppy songs, and poster war have made this contest exciting.
The Congress has termed AIMIM and BJP the "B-teams" of BRS, while the BJP has alleged that Congress and BRS have an understanding. Owaisi’s AIMIM is saying Congress and BJP have an understanding to defeat his party and BRS. And KCR’s party has alleged that Congress and BJP are hand in glove to beat BRS. Very confusing, indeed. A triangular contest can be seen on 25%-30% of seats, while 70%-75% of seats have a bipolar contest.
ABP-CVoter Exit Poll: BJP Edge In Raj, Congress On Winning Track In Telangana & MP, Close Fight In Chhattisgarh
What’s Working For BRS And What’s Not?
KCR remains popular, still enjoying the goodwill for getting long pending statehood to Telangana. There is no leader who can match his popularity, though the Congress’ Revanth Reddy is catching up. A section of people, however, are disillusioned with KCR's dynastic-feudalistic style of politics and his inaccessibility. Families controlling the state's politics has not gone down well with civil society groups and intellectuals.
There is huge anti-incumbency against MLAs, some of whom have allegations of corruption against them. Many voters are astounded by the wealth generated and amassed by these MLAs, besides their alleged inaccessibility and arrogance. By repeating almost all of its MLAs, BRS has taken a big risk.
KCR has created a pool of beneficiaries through various schemes targeted at farmers, women, youth and senior citizens, thus converting to a large extent a caste battle into a class battle. However, this has also created problems for BRS as class politics is aspirations-based.
While Telangana has one of the highest per capita incomes in the country, it also has a high unemployment and inflation rate. Further, the pandemic has deepened the gulf between the rich and the poor, causing disillusionment among urban poor.
Additionally, BRS has failed to implement some of its promises with respect to providing double-bedroom houses, unemployment allowance to the youth and KG to PG free education for poor children.
AIMIM and BJP are also helping BRS by splitting the opposition vote, especially in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation region, which has 21 seats. They pose a serious threat to the Congress party’s prospects and can potentially pull down its tally in this crucial region, literally pushing the party out of contention. That’s the reason why we see heated exchanges between Congress and AIMIM as they slog to capture the Muslim vote.
What’s Working For Congress And What’s Not?
The party’s victory in Karnataka has given a boost to its prospects in Telangana, and also provided it with resources to match the might of BRS. The six guarantees of the Congress party have created a buzz on the ground. The fact that it has implemented some of its promises in neighbouring Karnataka has also given assurance to voters and lent credibility to its promises.
The party is running a tight campaign, at the same time strategising to revive its traditional vote bank of SCs, STs, Muslims and BCs. The Congress manifesto promises to increase the reservation of SCs to 18 per cent, a scheme to provide financial assistance of Rs 12 lakh per family for SCs and STs within five years, Rs 4,000 crore allocation for minority welfare and reservation for backward classes after caste survey. With Revanth Reddy at the helm, it has managed to win over a section of the influential Reddy community.
The Congress is tapping the fatigue factor among sections of voters who desire a change, especially the youth. The party is effectively exploiting the anti-incumbency against BRS MLAs and the corruption allegations against KCR government, including in the Kaleshwaram dam. The Bharat Jodo Yatra energised the cadre ahead of this battle. Prior to the yatra, the party organisation had been in tatters, since 12 MLAs broke away and merged with the BRS in 2019.
Rahul Gandhi is popular in South India, and this is helping the Congress garner votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys a big lead against Rahul across the states where opinion polls have been held, with his popularity rating ranging from 30%-40%. In Telangana, however, the lead is less than 5%.
The replacement of BJP state chief Sanjay Bandi, who is an OBC, has come as a blessing in disguise for the Congress, as it has now become the default beneficiary of anti-KCR vote. This has angered even hardcore BJP supporters. The party is comparatively strong in the eastern and southern regions sharing a border with Andhra Pradesh. The weakening of the BJP in the North is also helping the Congress. Its charge of BJP and AIMIM working as B-Team is gaining some traction on the ground.
Factionalism in the party with allegations of Revanth running a solo campaign without taking others along may impact the party on the D-Day in getting out the vote. Congress has become structurally weaker in the past decade in the state and lacks the organizational might to convert disillusionment into votes, relying thus a lot on public mood for change.
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
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