Threat At Sea Is Real. Time For India To Put SAGAR, Indo-Pacific, IORA To Test

India will face more aggressive challenges in the seas, but it is prepared to counter these as the Modi government has been pushing several initiatives for security threats in the oceans.

Source : Special arrangement

From the Arabian Sea to the Indian Ocean, from the Red Sea to the South China Sea, peninsular India is now facing multiple threats in the maritime domain as merchant ships come under attack on its west due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war while a belligerent China threatens to dominate the seas on its east. It's time for India now to walk the talk and activate the deterrent measures that it had been boasting about for the nine years from Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), Indo-Pacific policy, Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), among others.

In June 2018, addressing the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously said India’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific encompasses the region from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas and it is inclusive. As Defence Minister Rajnath Singh mentioned in his speech while commissioning warship INS Imphal into the Indian Navy that special attention has been given on strengthening the Indian Navy under the Modi government. Therefore, it is time now for India to show that the Navy has indeed become all-powerful and that it can safeguard merchant ships crisscrossing the seas that surround India.  

Last week, I had written about how the coming year is going to be more difficult for India geopolitically, compared to 2023, and New Delhi will utilise the crises to change some of its traditional foreign policy stance as it gets strategically closer to the West, particularly the United States.

Apart from dealing with China and a rapidly changing neighbourhood, India will have to do some major firefighting in 2024 as it faces some serious and unprecedented allegations of plotting to assassinate Khalistani separatists in other countries. The US, while continuing to bolster defence and security ties with India, will also ensure that it continues to play up the matter concerning alleged plots to murder Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. On the other hand, Canada will continue its relentless badgering of India in front of the global media glare unless it brings the main perpetrators behind the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar to books.

But now, India will have to face far bigger and more aggressive challenges in the seas. However, India should be well poised to counter these challenges emerging in the waters as the Modi government has been persistently pushing a plethora of strategic initiatives for an imminent security threat in the oceans.

Just as the year was coming to a close, India woke up to the news of two merchant ships — Liberian-flagged MV Chem Pluto and Gabon-flagged MV Sai Baba — having a significant size of Indian crew members being attacked by drone strikes or missiles as they got engulfed in the ongoing war in Gaza. This prompted India to deploy three warships in the seas for “deterrent presence”.

Besides, the Indian Coast Guard has mobilised Dornier aircraft, which has increased their sorties, taken up the number of offshore patrol vessels that continue to monitor the Exclusive Economic Zone, while Sea Guardian drones have also been deployed to check suspicious activities in the sea.

Boasting India’s prowess in the maritime domain, Defence Minister Singh said India will find the attackers even if they are hiding in the seabed. According to the US, the attackers are Houthi rebels backed by Iran.

Maritime Domain To Be New Battleground

While most of the initiatives concerning the maritime domain have been nothing but talking shops, it is time New Delhi put them into real action as the maritime theatre is slowly becoming a new battleground of sorts along with land.

However, it will not be a good idea for India to join a global coalition led by the US. India is capable enough to address the challenges if it activates SAGAR. PM Modi spoke about SAGAR for the first time in 2015 in Mauritius during the commissioning of Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) Barracuda for the National Coast Guard of Mauritius — the first-ever warship that was exported by India.

India can mobilise all these countries that are part of the SAGAR initiative when it comes to firming up the security of the Indian Ocean. This can be amalgamated with IONS, which was established in 2008 bringing together 35 navies in the region.

In 2013, India also became part of the trilateral initiative along with Sri Lanka and Maldives. PM Modi had earlier said the littoral countries have the primary responsibility for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indian Ocean. New Delhi shares deep strategic relations with some of these littoral countries such as Seychelles, Mauritius and Maldives.

Then there is the larger IORA, an intergovernmental organisation established in 1997. All members of IORA can draw up a comprehensive plan to strengthen the security of the sea-lanes that are imperative for the growth of international trade. Apart from India, other members states of IORA are Australia, Bangladesh, Comoros, France, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritius, Mozambique, Oman, Seychelles, Singapore, Somalia , South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, UAE and Yemen.

India is also part of Quad, along with the US, Japan and Australia, which carries out the Malabar naval exercise to arrest China’s activities that threaten to disrupt sea lanes.  

Therefore, as the threats in the oceans rise, India should not look for other countries like the US to take leadership and build a coalition. This is New Delhi’s moment to showcase true naval prowess and activate the existing coalition to build a comprehensive plan to deter as well as counter the emerging threats.

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