Punjab Election 2022: How Congress Snatched Defeat From The Jaws Of Victory

Till about six months ago, the ruling Congress was sitting pretty in Punjab. Capt Amarinder Singh was able to increase the strength of MLAs from 77 the party had won in 2017 to 80, and there was no major issue, including that of sacrilege, which could have posed a serious threat to the Congress retaining power in the ensuing elections.

It’s main rival, the Shiromani Akali Dal, had broken its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party, upsetting the win-win combination with Akalis and BJP complimenting each other respectively in rural and urban areas. In addition, the farmers’ agitation had provided a big setback to the Akalis.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was in a shambles with over half of its MLAs deserting the party and its top leadership too in a state of disarray. The party continued to be controlled from Delhi and little effort was made to build local leadership with question mark even over the leadership of its most well known face in Punjab — Bhagwant Mann.

It was not that all was hunky dory with the Congress government, either. Capt Amarinder Singh led a laidback government and there was no major achievement that he could boast of. However, the chief minister had been claiming that his government had achieved 93 per cent of its promises. The general refrain was that the congress government would retain power albeit with a smaller margin.

It was then that the Congress high command dropped a bombshell by bringing in Navjot Singh Sidhu, the bête noire of Capt Amarinder Singh, who was dropped from the cabinet a couple of years ago. His appointment as the state party chief, much despite stiff opposition from Capt Amarinder Singh, was the first self-goal scored by the Congress, which was followed by several more over the next six months. 

The rocking of its own boat in the state led to the two war horses pulling away in different directions. It was obvious that the two could not have pulled along and the octogenarian chief minister, who had led the party’s governments for over nine and a half years, was publicly humiliated and forced to resign.

While forming his own party and joining hands with the BJP, the former chief minister said his sole ambition in life was to work for the defeat of the Congress, and that of Navjot Singh Sidhu, in the 2022 assembly elections.

What is most significant aspect of the change of horses midstream in Punjab was that it was the first major independent decision taken by the Gandhi siblings — Priyanka and Rahul — by overriding the reported opposition by their mother. Sonia Gandhi, as was well known, used to bank on party’s powerful general secretary Ahmed Patel for political advice. His passing away a few months ago had left the party rudderless. It was at this juncture that the Gandhi siblings sought to assert themselves and got impressed with Sidhu’s rhetoric.

The Damage That Couldn't Be Controlled 

Sidhu, who never hid his ambition to claim the top post, didn’t reconcile to Charanjit Singh Channi as chief minister, and kept repeatedly proclaiming that he would be the chief minister of the party retained power. He not only tried to initially handhold Channi but also came out with a “Sidhu model” of development and went on announcing party candidates without getting the approval of the election committee of the party. 

Backing up his reputation of being unpredictable and a maverick, he even tendered resignation from the post of party president to protest the Channi government’s decisions on certain bureaucratic appointments. Although he quietly withdrew the resignation letter, he kept on harping about his claim to the post of chief minister. He forced the hand Rahul Gandhi to declare the chief ministerial candidate or the party.

By that time, the Congress had boxed itself into a corner by trumpeting that it was the first party to appoint a Dalit chief minister (even though he was the fifth choice after the first four were opposed by Sidhu). To announce that he was only a night watchman would have been suicidal for the party not only in Punjab but elsewhere in the country too. Rahul Gandhi had little choice but to declare Channi as the party’s chief ministerial candidate.

This obviously sent Sidhu in a sulk even though he announced to support Channi in public. However, by that time he had done enough damage to the party to ensure that it found itself in a corner. In fact, no other opposition party had done the extent of damage to Congress as its own state unit chief Navjot Sidhu.
All these developments led to a huge disappointment among the voters who were subjected to daily barbs being thrown against each other by Congress leaders. These also included Channi, Sunil Jakhar, Manish Tiwari, Partap Singh Bajwa and other contenders for the post of chief minister.

Control In Delhi Hands — What Doesn't Work In Punjab 

Another major factor that worked against the Congress in Punjab this time was the perception that the state government and the party was being controlled from the Centre. It is a known fact that the Punjabis resent being “controlled” by Delhi. A major factor behind Capt Amarinder Singh leading the party to victory in two elections was that he was perceived to be independent of the influence of the party high command. Channi, on the other hand, was not only nominated the Gandhi siblings, but was being directed by them even for local decisions. 

The AAP too had lost out in the previous elections due to similar perception that it was being controlled by the party’s leaders in Delhi and that the apprehension that Arvind Kejriwal might take over as chief minister of the party had wrested power. The difference this time was that the party made a public announcement that Bhagwant Singh Mann would be its chief ministerial candidate. 

With the new Congress set up seen as being controlled by the party high command, there was little advantage left for the Congress.

It would be appropriate to recall that in the 2017 elections, in which Capt Amarinder Singh had almost single handedly led the party’s campaign, there was no demand from party candidates for Rahul Gandhi to campaign in their constituencies. In fact, Rahul Gandhi had addressed just three or four public rallies despite reluctance expressed by the candidates. Gandhis were never popular in Punjab. On the contrary, they are seen to be responsible for Operation Bluestar and the subsequent developments. To see the family controlling the government in the state was something of an anathema for the voters of the state.

After losing comprehensively in Punjab, the Congress is now confined to only two states in the country. Unless the party goes through a major churning, it appears to be heading for extinction.

The author is a senior journalist and former Resident Editor of The Indian Express.

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