The grand opposition meet to discuss an alliance against the ruling BJP, on the lines of the Janata Party experiment in 1977, is slated to be held today (Friday, June 23). Top honchos of at least 15 big political parties, including the fence sitters Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress and Samajwadi Party, are expected to attend the meeting to thrash out differences and discuss a “one seat one candidate” proposition to fight the BJP in 2024 general elections.
Notable absentees include Bharat Rashtra Samithi, YSR Congress, Biju Janata Dal, Telugu Desam Party and Shiromani Akali Dal. Among the parties attending, many like the Nationalist Congress Party, Shiv Sena (UBT), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Janata Dal United, DMK, and Rashtriya Janata Dal are already part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
The Karnataka victory has given confidence to the Congress that BJP is not invincible. The Congress won without any opposition unity and by making a dent primarily in the vote bank of the regional force, Janata Dal (Secular). This has made Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav, who were earlier dismissive of any pact with the grand old party, sing a conciliatory note, as they are wary of losing votes from the minorities, the Dalits and the poor.
Some of the tricky questions like who will lead the alliance, if any, or will there be a prime ministerial face of the group, and if yes, who, will need to be deliberated in the meeting. All is not well between the AAP and the Congress, with the AAP taking potshots ahead of the meet, accusing the grand old party of stealing its ideas, manifesto. Congress leader in the Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury continues his sit-in protest against the alleged attack on Congress workers in Bengal as the ruling Trinamool Congress continues to poach its leaders.
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Much Ado About Nothing?
Opposition unity is not possible in Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Punjab. These states account for 96 seats. The basic rule is the number 1 and number 2 players of any state cannot enter into an alliance — the CPM and the Congress in Kerala, YSRCP and TDP in Andhra, AAP and Congress in Punjab and BJD and Congress in Odisha, for example. These states account for 96 seats, which is 18 percent of the Lok Sabha strength.
Alliances are already in place in Maharashtra (Maha Vikas Agadi consisting of INC, NCP, Shiv Sena - UBT), Jharkhand (JMM, INC), Bihar (JDU, RJD, INC, Left parties), Tamil Nadu (DMK, INC, Left parties) and J&K (Gupkar alliance consisting of PDP, INC, JKNC). These states account for 147 seats — 27% of the Lok Sabha strength.
Opposition unity is not required in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa and Karnataka, where it is a primarily head-to-head contest between the Congress and the BJP. These states account for 130 seats, which is 24% of the Lok Sabha strength, and regional parties have limited to no role here. Even if the Congress ties up with TMC, SP and AAP nationally, these parties have negligible votes, except the AAP in Gujarat to some extent.
Opposition unity doesn’t matter in 20-odd seats in the Northeast and uinion territories — 3% of the Lok Sabha strength.
This leaves 153 tricky seats where some sort of opposition unity is possible. These include Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Delhi, Assam and Haryana. Here as well, 100% opposition unity is not possible as BSP in UP and CPM in Bengal will not join even if the Congress agrees to be part of this deal. Chautala’s INLD in Haryana is warming up to an alliance with the Congress.
Opposition unity talks start before each election, then fizzles out as many opposition parties are born out of an anti-Congress plank. They have still not been able to adjust to the new phenomenon that it's the BJP and not the Congress that is the main pole of politics in India now.
Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is talking of understanding and possibility of a one-to-one contest in around 450 seats. This is a very ambitious target. In 373 constituencies, close to 70% of Lok Sabha strength, opposition unity is either not possible, or not required, or exists already. Thus, all this is very much pointing to a much ado about nothing exercise! Having said that, anything can happen in politics, as the cliche goes. All eyes on 2024!
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
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