New Delhi: At least 18 "like-minded" Opposition parties are likely to attend Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's mega meet on June 23 to discuss a common electoral strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now, although the Opposition parties have finally agreed to bury their hatchets and agreed to come on a united platform, their differences are still visible. While Kumar is hopeful of uniting the Opposition parties ahead of the Lok Sabha polls 2024, the job will prove to be a Herculean task.
Getting A Head Start Unlike In 2019
All the "like-minded" Opposition leaders are hoping that this time they will be able to get a head start on the process of alliance formation, unlike last time. In 2019, there was hardly any movement in the Opposition camp before Mamata Banerjee's meeting with Sonia Gandhi in December 2018 at the Parliament annex building. The meeting was coordinated by TDP chief and Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu. However, the meeting came too late and gave the parties hardly any time for parleys, and all attempts to form a UPA 3.0 failed.
It seems the Opposition learnt its lesson and has decided to begin the process to cement the foundations for a united Opposition a year ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections.
In A First, Congress Finds No Leadership Position In Opposition
Perhaps for the first time in the electoral history of India, the Opposition strength won't be led by the Congress. The Congress doesn't seem to have the upper hand in the discussions this time around. Most parties seem to have realised that a united Opposition is very well possible without the Congress leading it or even part of it.
However, while TMC supremo and Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav were looking to form a Congress-mukt alliance, it seems Nitish Kumar has been able to convince them otherwise.
Even in 2018-19, the Congress seemed to be at the centre of the Opposition's would-be strategy, despite a humiliating loss in 2014. The foundation for the possibility of a united platform back then was laid by Mamata Banerjee and Chandrababu Naidu.
This time, however, it seems, Nitish Kumar beat Banerjee to gather the Opposition parties against the BJP, and the saffron party looks to be attempting to revive its old relation with erstwhile ally TDP.
Mamata’s Alliance Promise Comes With A Rider
Though Mamata agreed to join the united alliance, her move has come with a rider. She has said she would join the alliance to oppose the BJP, but the Congress can forget any help if it continues its ties with the CPM in West Bengal. The Mamata-Congress hate story also seemed to have deepened after the TMC's loss to the grand old party after 13 years in the Sagardighi bypoll, and then the subsequent defection of the sole Congress MLA to the Trinamool Congress.
For now, it seems Mamata Banerjee, a former Congress leader herself, has been able to keep other parties away from the Congress on various issues.
How The Parties United Against BJP
The idea of a united Opposition seemingly took shape around April this year after the Hindenburg "revelations" about the Adani group, alleging manipulation of company shares. The Opposition parties found a big opportunity in this. First, it could corner the BJP, using Gautam Adani's purported "close relations" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the government's "silence" on the issue. And second, every party saw it as a chance to overcome the Congress's dominance in the event and a common platform was formed. Two birds…, as they say.
The Adani issue was perhaps just the trigger as the Opposition was already riled up over the alleged misuse of central investigation agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI. In March this year, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a petition on the “alarming rise in the use of coercive criminal processes against Opposition political leaders and other citizens”.
The plea was moved by a united front, comprising INC, DMK, RJD, BRS, Trinamool Congress, AAP, NCP, Shiv Sena (UBT), JMM, JD(U), CPI(M), CPI, Samajwadi Party, J&K National Conference). According to Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi, these parties together represented 42.5% of the votes cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A Clear Strategy
Nitish Kumar's strategy for the united Opposition is clear — one candidate per seat against the BJP. Moreover, the Opposition is clear in its strategy this year; that it cannot wrest every constituency from the BJP. Unlike the previous two elections, it is now focused on the seats that it can win.
The 'one candidate per seat' strategy had worked against the Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi governments in 1977 and 1989, respectively. However, the times are different now and what worked back then may not work today. Hence, Nitish Kumar has his work cut out.
The Numbers Game
Kumar's strategy will be a mix of parleys and numbers. And even then, most of his plan would be limited to the Hindi heartland. This is why he would need the Congress, which is still basking in the light of its Karnataka win. It will also need support from the regional parties in the south and the west.
For starters, Kumar will first try to focus on selecting the seats that the Opposition is sure to win. According to an Opposition leader, there are 100 such seats that the Opposition can win outright. So, now the united Opposition has to first select those seats.
Secondly, Kumar plans on restricting the BJP to just 100 seats. This is easier said than done, considering the mammoth numbers that the BJP raked in in its favour last election. According to Kumar, he doesn't have ambitions for the PM's chair, but the Opposition must heed his advice to remove BJP from the Centre. Kumar's strategy to hand BJP a defeat of magnanimous proportions depends on numbers, especially in the Hindi heartland, and his ability to convince the Opposition parties to field common candidates from strong constituencies.
A lot of Kumar's plan depends a lot on a permutation and combination of numbers and a strong adhesive agent to keep the Opposition parties, with divergent ideologies, together. Bringing down the BJP to less than 100 from its present tally of 303 seats in Lok Sabha is not going to be an easy task. According to insiders, the united Opposition will contest 450 constituencies of the 543 seats up for grabs in 2023. The Hindi heartland — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand — has 134 of those seats. In the last elections, the BJP and its allies won 113 of these seats. This is where Nitish's immediate focus would be. With Akhilesh Yadav on board, he will have solid support in Uttar Pradesh, while CM Hemant Soren's JMM will play a pivotal role in garnering tribal votes for the united Opposition in 2023.
Pressing Questions For United Opposition
Even before the meeting has begun, two most pressing questions have come to the fore:
1. What does each party bring to the table?
2. Perhaps the more important one — Modi vs who?
Let's take a look at the first question. What do the parties have to offer one another or to the common platform?
Every healthy alliance is based on a symbiotic relationship under a 'give-and-take' policy. However, this is the most pressing concern that needs to be addressed. Former Congress leaders Kapil Sibal and Ghulam Nabi Azad have also pointed out this concern. Azad, in fact, has said that an alliance among the Opposition parties is impossible as they have nothing to offer one another.
Also, the Congress, which is hoping to have a seat of great importance at the table, may prove to be part of the problem. While Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav were already against an alliance with Congress in it, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is also likely to join that bandwagon. After it spurned Kejriwal's request for support against the Centre's ordinance on Delhi's administrative postings, the AAP is likely to agree to come on a 'United Opposition' platform only if it's Congress-mukt. The Congress workers' black-flag protest against Kejriwal in Rajasthan last Sunday is not going to make matters easier for the Grand Old Party, either.
But with Congress's win in the Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka elections this year, and the JD(S) slowly leaning towards the BJP, can the others ignore it altogether? Probably not. Even Mamata Banerjee seems to have realised the party's importance after its historic win in Karnataka.
While the BJP, along with its allies, has won three out of four assembly elections this year, Congress has won one. The upcoming elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana may just show which way the people's verdict goes.
It remains to be seen now what offers are put on the table by each party at the June 23 meeting, the first of quite a few. Even if they somehow manage to overcome differences, the most important question would remain — Modi vs who?