Tripura Results Big Setback for CPI(M) But Everything May Still Not Be Lost

For the second consecutive time, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front lost elections in the northeastern state of Tripura, which was once known as a communist citadel. To defeat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, CPM this time even allied with its once arch-rival Congress, but still failed to unseat the saffron party. Contesting 43 seats, the CPI(M) managed to bag 11 seats, securing 24.62% votes. Its Left allies Communist Party of India, Revolutionary Socialist Party and All India Forward Bloc contested one seat each and failed to open their accounts once again. CPI, RSP and Forward Bloc secured 0.48%, 0.67% and 1.03% vote share, respectively. Together, the Left Front got 26.8% while its new partner Congress, contesting 13 seats, secured 8.56% votes and won three seats. Taking together all the votes, including that of the Independent supported by both Left and Congress, the figure stands at 36.01%.

Last time, the Left Front got 44.35% while Congress polled 1.79% votes. So, the combined figure of both Left and Congress stood at 46.14. It shows a reduction of 10% this time. In terms of seats too, the Left’s tally dropped to 11 from 16. The party lost 9 seats it won last time, and this included constituencies like Dhanpur, Chandipur, Rajnagar(SC), Manu (ST), Jolaibari (ST) and Kamalasagar. As a result, CPM slipped to the third position with Pradyot Debbarma’s TIPRA Motha occupying the second spot by winning 13 seats.

For this setback, Left leaders are blaming the split of Opposition votes. And they aren’t wrong as the data clearly says that in 18 seats where the Left-Congress came second, TIPRA Motha’s votes were more than the BJP’s winning margins.

But will it be right to only blame the Motha? Was there no strategic failure on part of the Left-Congress? There obviously was a big strategic failure from their side, particularly the Left. CPM’s state secretary Jitendra Chaudhury adopted a soft strategy towards Motha, which despite several calls for alliance didn’t ally with the Left. Even after the completion of the scrutiny of nomination papers, Jitendra continued to say that they are trying for an adjustment with the Motha at the last moment — this meant he was implying that Left voters would support Motha where it is stronger and vice versa to stop division of votes among the Opposition. Obviously, Jitendra and Left’s worst worry came true. Significantly, while the Left avoided to criticise TIPRA Motha, the latter continued to attack the former.

It’s a fact that the seeds of the communist movement was sowed in the tribal belt of the state and it is this belt that was the backbone of the CPM — and as a result, the Left was able to rule for 35 years (from 1978-1988 and from 1993-2018). Until and unless it regains its strength in the hills, it will be difficult for it to come into power.

Though it's true that there seems to be some improvement in the tribal belt in comparison to the last TTAADC polls of 2021, but Left’s soft strategy towards Motha definitely hasn’t helped it and only created confusion among the voters on the ground. Also, to be fair, after the results of the last assembly polls, CPM completely collapsed and this was clearly evident in the Lok Sabha polls and the rural body polls of 2019 where it performed very badly. In comparison to that situation, these results do indicate that there has been some improvement in the Left’s performance and this can be confirmed from the fact that it has been able to recover five seats this time — Belonia, Sabroom, Barjala (SC), Bamutia (SC), Pratapgarh (SC). It has also been able to wrest back Jubarajnagar, which it lost to the BJP last year in the bypolls.  

Congress’ Dismal Performance Continues In Northeast

The grand old party once again failed to open its account in Nagaland. It secured a meagre vote share of 3.25%. In Meghalaya, the party won only 5 seats and secured a vote share of 13.14%. Last time, the party had emerged as the single largest party but this time it slipped to the fourth position. However, to be fair, looking at the developments in the last five years, Congress didn’t perform as bad as expected. But keeping all these 5 MLAs in the fold itself is a big challenge.

In Tripura, Congress contested 13 seats in partnership with the Left, but there too it didn’t perform as was expected. Although this time it was able to open its account by winning three seats, it was evident that the party hasn’t recovered much of its votes that went to the BJP in the 2018 polls.

As mentioned in these columns earlier, there was a lack of interest shown by the party central leadership towards the Northeast affairs, and this reflects in the people's mandate. Even after the results of the three states, Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge said this is unlikely to impact the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as Northeast parties usually go with the parties in power at the Centre. On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the party workers assembled at the party national headquarters in the evening of March 2 and connected these results with the national politics. This is the big difference between the BJP and the Congress, which views the Northeast only through numerical strength.

NPP Still Ahead In Race To Form Meghalaya Govt

Despite facing allegations of corruption and anti-incumbency, the National People’s Party of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma increased its tally to 26 from 20 and it vote share to 31.49% from 20.6%. The NPP also bagged 5 seats in Nagaland — an increase of 3. However, its vote share dropped to 5.78% from 6.9% there.

However, in Meghalaya, both the NPP and the Opposition led by UDP are in the race to secure numbers to form the government, although NPP seems to be ahead as it is not only the single largest party but also has support from other MLAs. Conrad Sangma already met Governor Phagu Chauhan with the support letter of 32 MLAs comprising 26 from NPP, 2 from BJP, 2 from Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP) and 2 Independents. However, there was a twist in the story later with the HSPDP claiming that its MLAs were not mandated by the party to support the NPP. But it seems unlikely that party MLAs would heed to the advice of the party.

The United Democratic Party, which in the last five years shared power along with NPP, is rooting for a non-NPP and non-BJP coalition government in the state. UDP has got 11 seats this time. It is backed by Mukul Sangma of Trinamool Congress, which despite so much media hype was able to win only 5 seats. Away from power for five years, Mukul seems to be desperate to be in power. Apart from these parties, there are 5 MLAs of Congress, 2 of People’s Democratic Front and 4 from Voice People’s Party. HSPDP is supporting the Opposition but its MLAs are not in tune with the party line.

The author is a political commentator.

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