Northeast Results: BJP Has All The Reasons To Celebrate, But There Are A Few Worrying Signs It Can't Ignore

After Assam and Manipur, the Bharatiya Janata Party has been able to return to power in another northeastern state in its own — Tripura. In Nagaland, it is back for the second consecutive time in alliance with senior partner Nationalist Democratic People’s Party led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio. However, in Meghalaya, despite much hype, the party failed to live up to its expectations.

Relief For BJP In Tripura But The Decline In Seats A Cause For Worry

The BJP created another history as it is for the first time that a non-Left government has been elected to power for the second consecutive time in Tripura since it became a full-fledged state in 1972. The battle wasn’t easy for the party this time. Despite anti-incumbency and factionalism within, the BJP has been able to secure a majority on its own by getting 32 seats with a vote share of 38.97%, while its ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura managed to win only one seat with a vote share of only 1.26%. The party has been able to demolish some Left bastions like Dhanpur, Rajnagar (SC), Chandipur and Kamalasagar.

The vote percentages of both BJP and IPFT together stands at 40.23. Last time, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s vote share was 50.87%. Clearly, this time the NDA showed a reduction of more than 10 points in vote percentage — and this is something that the BJP just cannot ignore. In terms of seats too, NDA showed a reduction of 11 seats — BJP got 4 less since the 2018 elections while ally IPFT's tally came down by 7.

Obviously, the saffron party has reasons to celebrate. But there are also worrying signs. Deputy Chief Minister Jishnu Debbarma, who is one of the party’s prominent tribal faces, lost from the Charilam (ST) seat to Tipra Motha’s Subodh Debbarma. Party's state vice-president Patal Kanya Jamatia, another prominent tribal face, lost from the Ampinagar (ST) seat with a large margin to Motha’s Pathan Lal Jamatia. However, Tribal Affairs Minister Rampada Jamatia has been able to retain his Bagma (ST) seat. IPFT’s working president Prem Kumar Reang, who is also a member of the present cabinet, lost from the Kanchanpur (ST) seat — he came a distant fourth there.  

The NDA won only seven of the 20 ST seats, down from 18 in 2018. Even in these ST seats, it was the split in votes between Tipra Motha and the Left helped the BJP to win. On the other hand, state BJP president Rajib Bhattacharjee, one of the prominent faces for the post of chief minister, lost from the Banamalipur seat of West Tripura to Congress candidate Gopal Chandra Roy. Rebati Mohan Das, who was state assembly speaker from 2018 to 2021, lost to CPM’s Ramu Das in Pratapgarh (SC), a seat which was once represented by Left’s Dalit stalwart and former state minister Anil Sarkar.

Rise In Vote Share But No Increase In Nagaland Seat Tally

The BJP has been happy with the results of Nagaland where the party’s vote share rose to 18.81% — a rise of 3.51  points from the last 2018 elections. The party secured 12 seats last time, the highest ever. This time too, it got 12. Senior ally NDPP has been able to increase its seats from 18 to 25 this time, and the vote share from 25.2% to 32.22%.

This time, the momentum was clearly with the NDPP-BJP alliance as the two erstwhile ruling parties of the state — Nagaland People’s Front, which had emerged as the single largest party last time, and the Congress — failed to field candidates in all 60 seats. NPF contested only 22 while Congress 23 seats. In fact, BJP candidate Kazheto Kinimi won the Akuluto (ST) seat unopposed. But the party failed to increase its numbers.

Interestingly, the Nationalist Congress Party has won 7 seats — defeating the BJP in 6 of them. Sharad Pawar’s NCP had contested 12 seats, fielding candidates against the BJP in 10. NDPP hadn’t given tickets to 15 MLAs and 12 of these were the defectors from the NPF. Of the 12 NCP contestants, 7 were ex-NDPP MLAs. That’s the reason there were speculations of NCP being a B-Team of the NDPP, and it seems that NCP actually dented the BJP’s prospects in Nagaland. All didn't seem well between the two allies, and it remains to be seen how this shapes the NDA in the near future.

For the time being, the BJP can be happy with the fact that it has at least increased its vote share and retained its seat count in a Christian majority state like Nagaland while its major enemy Congress, which regularly attacks it calling it as “anti-Christian party”, once again failed to win a single seat.

Meghalaya Disappoints  

Despite all the hype, the BJP fell below expectations in Meghalaya. It could win only two seats — Pynthorumkhrah (ST) and South Shillong (ST) — with Alexander Laloo Hek and Sanbor Shullai retaining their respective seats. In 2018, BJP won the same two seats with a vote share of 9.6%. This time, the party’s vote share is 9.33%. This shows the BJP has not been able to increase its foothold in Meghalaya, despite the party contesting in all the 60 seats. It has once again pledged support to the National People’s Party, which has emerged as the single largest party but short of majority.

Message From The Three States

The results of the three northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya indicate that though the BJP could not improve its performance since last time, it has been just able to retain its base in these states, confirming that it is here to stay. The results show that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supreme popularity is a major factor in deciding the results, particularly in Tripura, where the Modi factor played a crucial role in bringing the saffron party to power again.

PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda can be happy that the Congress has been reduced to a minor player in the region, though  the grand old party got more seats than the BJP in Meghalaya. Amid the hype of BJP “performing very well” in the three northeastern states, the message is that the party has to look beyond the Modi factor instead of just completely depending on it as these results show that this factor also has its limitations. 

The author is a political commentator.

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