Karnataka Election: How Things Stack Up For Congress And BJP As They Fight A Do-Or-Die Battle

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Karnataka again today — his eighth visit to the poll-bound state this year — underscoring the state’s relevance to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s scheme of things. Even as the saffron party is desperately trying to make inroads into neighbouring Telangana and Kerala, retaining Karnataka — its only bastion in the south — is critical to its expansion plans. There’s a problem, though: Karnataka’s revolving door politics has not seen a chief minister return to power ever since Ramakrishna Hegde in 1985. 

How ​The ​Election ​Is ​Stacked ​Up

To make things worse, CM Basavaraj Bommai is fighting massive anti-incumbency; that too, just a couple of years after replacing mentor BS Yediyurappa. In fact, pre-poll surveys predict a win for the Congress, making it one of the toughest elections for the BJP in recent times. And hence, the over-reliance on the prime minister to salvage the party’s flagging fortunes. The BJP’s hopes of a turnaround rests on the party winning over 50 per cent of the votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, riding on the ‘Modi magic’. 

The Lok Sabha election was primarily contested between Modi and Rahul Gandhi, where the former emerged triumphant. The assembly election, however, is being fought on a different level, with former CM Siddaramaiah and party chief DK Shivakumar leading the opposition against the BJP. That Rahul Gandhi has only made a solitary visit to the election-bound state thus far may not be a coincidence. Gandhi’s second visit was originally rescheduled for April 9 (to coincide with the PM’s), but has been postponed yet again.

Apart from the BJP and the Congress, there​ is a regional player in Karnataka in the Janata Dal-Secular, or JD(S), which is pinning its hopes on emerging as a king-maker in the post-poll scenario. It so happened that the JD(S) unexpectedly walked away with the chief ministership after the previous election in 2018, forming a post-poll alliance with the Congress, only to be toppled by the BJP in 2019. Yediyurappa was back at the helm, and it was only after the stepping down of the battle-hardened veteran in 2021 that things started going horribly wrong for the BJP.

Bommai ​And Yediyurappa

Despite being handpicked by Yediyurappa himself, Bommai’s two-year term has been marred by controversies from massive corruption allegations to communal conflicts. Bommai also failed to grow in stature and emerge as a leader of the (Veerashaiva) Lingayats. The Lingayats continue to back Yediyurappa, which explains the veteran shooting back to prominence in the run-up to the polls.

The BJP, which did not hesitate to phase out Yediyurappa in 2021, has, in fact, pushed the veteran back to the mainstream by inducting him into the party’s parliamentary board, its highest decision-making body. However, it stopped short of naming him as the campaign committee chief. The Congress has also been attempting to woo the Lingayats who constitute 17 per cent of the state’s population with a sizeable presence in 100 constituencies, although the community has stood rock solid behind the BJP.

Bommai’s naming as the chief of BJP’s campaign committee is a major face-saver for the beleaguered CM. The JD(S) is muddying the waters too, suggesting that the BJP would replace Bommai with a Brahmin face such as BL Santhosh or Prahlad Joshi if it gets a renewed mandate — which isn’t completely unfounded, although it would only happen if the BJP gets a clear mandate. 

Siddaramaiah And Shivakumar

As for the Congress, its chances have been bolstered by a number of late defections to its ranks, giving a clear indication of which way the wind is blowing. However, it will have to guard against factionalism and the conflicting ambitions of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to the point of scuttling the party’s chances. Reportedly, the Congress is unable to announce its final list of candidates, owing to the clash between the two leaders on the candidates in two dozen seats. 

Siddaramaiah’s wish to contest from two seats — Varuna, currently held by his doctor son Yathindra, and Kolar — is also a point of conflict. 

Keeping both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar in good humour is integral to the grand old party’s chances in the state, with both leaders bringing their own unique strengths to the table. These leaders have their own loyal vote banks: If Siddaramaiah is banking on the Ahinda (corresponding to a coalition of the SCs, STs and OBCs) coalition, Shivakumar hails from the sizeable Vokkaliga community, ​which, aside from the Lingayats, has a decisive say in determining the poll outcome. 

JD(S): All in the Family

The Vokkaligas have also been the vote bank of the JD(S) since Deve Gowda’s stint as CM in 1994, and they continue to keep the party relevant in the old Mysuru region. The BJP is also trying to make inroads into the region constituting 59 seats, where it made substantial gains in the Lok Sabha polls, at the expense of the Congress and the JD(S). The JD(S) has also been grappling with internal issues. 

Former PM Deve Gowda’s health issues have prevented him from campaigning for the party even as the image of a family-centric party has stuck to it. His son and former CM HD Kumaraswamy is leading the campaign, and he has had to contend with elder brother HD Revanna’s wife Bhavani unilaterally announcing her candidature from Hassan. The JD(S) is also holding out an olive branch to the Muslims with the naming of veteran CM Ibrahim as its state president. The Muslims have, by and large, remained steadfast voters of the Congress.

Muslim Vote And Reservations

There are other suitors lining up for the Muslim votes, especially in the communally-volatile coastal Karnataka, with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) announcing its intent to contest 25 seats and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) also in the frame. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has entered the fray, too. Coastal Karnataka and Malnad regions apart, where polarisation has significantly helped the BJP prospects, the Hindutva factor could be overridden by caste equations in other regions.

In fact, the BJP had been precisely trying to negate the influence of caste on voting patterns during the term of Bommai. However, it failed to achieve this end after failing to communalise the voters beyond a point, despite the halal food and hijab controversies keeping the pot boiling. So it has been forced to go back to Yediyurappa’s pull with the Lingayats to save itself the blushes. Tweaks in reservations, on the face of it, look like a communal move, but is, in fact, a gambit to placate the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas, apart from the SCs and STs, whose quotas have also gone up.

Region-Wise Voting Patterns

The Kittur Karnataka (Mumbai-Karnataka) region is where the BJP is the strongest, along with Malnad, coastal Karnataka and Bengaluru. It would try to improve on its performance in Kalyan Karnataka (Hyderabad-Karnataka) and the old Mysuru region. The Congress has its presence in every region of Karnataka and is hopeful of doing better in Kittur Karnataka as well as Malnad and coastal regions. The JD​(S​)​ doesn’t have a pan-Karnataka presence and is primarily focused on old Mysuru​, and it could be reduced to 20-odd seats if it becomes a bipolar contest elsewhere.

It is a do-or-die battle for the Congress ahead of the year-end elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and, the Lok Sabha polls down the line, while it is equally critical for the BJP to retain power in its lone bastion in the south. This election might also be a test of the relevance of JD(S) as a regional party in Karnataka, with patriarch Deve Gowda entering the autumn of his eventful life.

The author is a journalist and columnist based in South India.

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