The Congress secured a comfortable majority in the Karnataka assembly elections by winning over 130 seats out of the total 224. This puts the party well beyond the halfway mark and in a strong position to form the government. Though Karnataka has historically never elected an incumbent government, the verdict comes as a setback for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party that has suffered a significant blow with its number of seats reduced to around 60. The win in Karnataka is a big development for the Congress as it is expected to provide the party with the momentum it needs before the assembly elections in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where it has its government, besides Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram, and the 2024 general elections.
The upcoming assembly elections are crucial for the Congress and Karnataka verdict will aid the party in its fight for these states. The victory is also expected to provide a significant advantage to the party in any potential opposition alliance. This outcome solidifies the Congress's position as a central player in any coalition of opposition parties aiming to defeat the BJP at the national level.
Road To 2024
The Congress has a significant challenge ahead in the upcoming 2024 general elections, as the party is faced with the task of taking on the Bharatiya Janata Party. It was in need of a significant boost, and the victory in Karnataka is expected to provide just that.
The Karnataka election marks a significant milestone in the history of the Congress, as it witnessed the party's first major state triumph under the leadership of newly elected president, Mallikarjun Kharge. In a historic turn of events, the Congress has after 24 years elected a president who is not a member of the Gandhi family. Though it emerged victorious in the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections also, it is a relatively small state.
The Karnataka win presents the Congress with a prime opportunity to challenge the BJP's claim that it is a political party controlled by a single family. In order to secure victory in the upcoming assembly elections, the party recognised the importance of reassuring its voters, supporters, and cadres that it has the capability to win. The triumph is expected to boost the morale of Congress leaders and followers across all states. The impact of this win on the BJP's political landscape is also undeniable. The BJP is keenly aware that its primary adversary is the Congress, and it has been unwilling to allow them to make significant gains anywhere in the country.
Congress Prospects In Upcoming State Elections
The Congress victory in the Karnataka assembly elections is expected to yield benefits for the party in the upcoming elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Madhya Pradesh. The Congress currently holds power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. It won Madhya Pradesh in 2018 but a rebellion in the party ranks and subsequent defection by Jyotiraditya Scindia and others saw it losing the state to the BJP in early 2020. Despite facing challenges in Telangana, the Congress remains a formidable opponent to the Bharat Rashtra Samity led by K Chandrashekhar Rao. With a strong strategy and effective execution, the Congress still has the potential to put up a tough fight in the upcoming elections.
The Karnataka victory holds several significant lessons for the Congress. To succeed, it is imperative that the party recognises the significance of robust local leadership and cordial relations among the state's top leadership. Despite being in the governments, the Congress is facing significant internal discord among its top leaders in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. For example, the tussle between Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and former Deputy CM and senior leader Sachin Pilot is well known.
The Karnataka success highlights the importance of synchronised efforts by top leaders to secure victories in such elections. The Karnataka election shows how despite differences former CM Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Congress chief DK Shivakumar managed to put up a united front in a coordinated manner. The task ahead for the Congress should be to address all internal conflicts in states such as Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and MP.
The win also serves as a reminder that state elections must prioritise local issues that resonate with the grassroots, rather than unrelated larger issues.
Future In Opposition Alliance
The Congress win in Karnataka is expected to bolster not only its own standing, but also its status in the opposition groupings. The victory gives the Congress an advantage, at a time some parties are trying to put up a 'third front' without the Congress. The party has always claimed no opposition alliance can effectively challenge the BJP without the involvement of the Congress. It can now take a leading role in any opposition alliance, as it seeks to position itself at the forefront of the political landscape. While several political parties, including the Aam Aadmi Party and the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee, besides Nitish Kumar's JDU, have expressed their willingness to join a larger opposition alliance, but there seems to be some reluctance towards the Congress taking the central stage in such an alliance.
The political parties have put forth a crucial argument that questions the Congress's ability to lead such an alliance. They argue that if the Congress cannot secure victories in state elections, how can it expect to hold a central position in the alliance? The Karnataka victory changes that. With this win, the party has emerged as a significant political force again, second only to the ruling BJP. With four states under its direct control, including Karnataka, and a notable presence in several others, it is undeniable that the Congress has once again established itself as a formidable player in the country's political landscape.
The future of Congress and its political trajectory remain uncertain at this point in time. However, the Karnataka win has undoubtedly provided a significant and much needed boost to the morale of the grand old party in terms of political accomplishments. Some credit it can also give to the Bharat Jodo Yatra that was instrumental in reinvigorating Congress workers throughout India, instilling them with renewed energy, enthusiasm, and determination.
The author is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in Media & Politics.