The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were a moment of reckoning for Indian politics. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a third consecutive term, its reduced majority emboldened the Opposition, particularly the Congress, to believe that the Narendra Modi-led government was vulnerable. The optimism among Congress leaders was evident in their public statements and private conversations, as they anticipated a scenario where Rahul Gandhi could rally the Opposition to destabilise the government. However, nine months later, such aspirations appear increasingly unrealistic. Instead of a weakened BJP, the party has rebounded, securing crucial victories in state elections and reinforcing its political dominance.
The Congress Miscalculation
The Congress’s initial confidence after the Lok Sabha elections 2024 was rooted in the belief that the BJP’s reduced majority signalled a shift in voter sentiment. However, political success requires more than wishful thinking. The Congress underestimated the resilience of the BJP and overestimated its own ability to consolidate the Opposition. While the Congress managed to win some key constituencies in the general election, the subsequent assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi revealed the party’s persistent organisational weaknesses and lack of strategic depth.
Rahul Gandhi’s leadership remains a subject of intense scrutiny. While he has been vocal in his criticism of the Modi government, his inability to unify the I.N.D.I.A bloc has raised doubts about his effectiveness as an Opposition leader. The recent assembly-election losses have further eroded confidence within the alliance, with regional parties now questioning the Congress’s capability to challenge the BJP. The Congress’s traditional strategy of relying on anti-incumbency and broad ideological narratives has not yielded the expected results, highlighting the need for a more concrete political and electoral roadmap.
BJP’s Strategic Course Correction
The BJP’s ability to regain momentum after the Lok Sabha setback is a testament to its adaptability and strategic recalibration. The party has made significant adjustments in its campaign approach, focusing on micro-level voter outreach rather than large-scale rallies. Unlike previous elections where grand public meetings were the norm, the BJP’s campaigns for the recent assembly elections prioritised door-to-door interactions and targeted messaging. This shift ensured that the party directly engaged with voters, addressing their concerns and reinforcing its core promises.
Additionally, the BJP leadership refrained from making exaggerated electoral predictions, maintaining a measured approach that contrasted sharply with the overconfidence of the Opposition. The meticulous planning and execution of campaign strategies in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi demonstrated the party’s commitment to continuous course correction. The Delhi victory, in particular, was a major psychological boost, as the BJP managed to defeat the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had dominated the capital’s assembly elections for over a decade.
The Constitution And Reservation Narrative
One of the most significant aspects of the BJP’s recent electoral strategy has been its proactive response to the Opposition’s ‘Constitution-in-danger’ narrative. Following the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP leadership recognised that this perception had played a role in its reduced seat count, especially among Scheduled Caste (SC), Scheduled Tribe (ST), and Other Backward Class (OBC) voters. To counter this, the party launched an aggressive outreach campaign, ensuring that these voter groups were reassured about the safety of their constitutional rights and reservation benefits.
The BJP effectively highlighted its pro-poor and pro-backward class initiatives during Modi’s tenure, contrasting them with the Congress’s historical track record. Literature and digital content were extensively distributed to dispel doubts, and top leaders made concerted efforts to engage with these communities. The party’s ability to regain trust among these crucial voter segments was instrumental in its strong showing in the Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi elections.
Managing Alliances: Stability Over Speculation
When the BJP fell short of the majority mark in the Lok Sabha elections, many speculated that allies such as Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar would wield disproportionate influence over government decisions. However, the BJP has managed its coalition dynamics efficiently, ensuring that its allies feel valued while maintaining autonomy in policymaking. Early concerns over alliance stability have largely dissipated, with both Naidu and Kumar appearing content with their respective roles and state-level considerations.
Additionally, the BJP has demonstrated pragmatism in addressing contentious issues within the coalition. For instance, potential irritants like the Waqf amendment bill were handled with careful negotiation, preventing any major disruptions. This ability to balance coalition politics while maintaining a strong central leadership has been a crucial factor in the BJP’s continued governance stability.
Dissension Within The I.N.D.I.A Bloc
In stark contrast to the BJP’s internal cohesion, the I.N.D.I.A bloc is experiencing significant turbulence. The recent electoral setbacks have intensified doubts about Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, with several regional leaders openly questioning the Congress’s dominance within the alliance. Many regional parties view the Congress’s inability to challenge Modi effectively as a liability rather than an asset. This internal discord has made it increasingly difficult for the Opposition to present a united front against the BJP.
Moreover, the Congress’s declining electoral performance has emboldened regional parties to pursue their interests rather than prioritising alliance unity. With several key state elections on the horizon, these parties are more focused on safeguarding their respective voter bases than investing in a broader anti-BJP strategy. The lack of a coherent vision and decisive leadership within the I.N.D.I.A bloc continues to undermine its effectiveness as a political force.
The RSS Factor: A Silent Gamechanger
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has once again proven to be a crucial force multiplier for the BJP. While the RSS has always played a supportive role in BJP campaigns, its involvement in the recent assembly elections was particularly noteworthy. Recognising the impact of the ‘Constitution-in-danger’ narrative, the RSS mobilised its vast network to counter misinformation and reinforce pro-BJP messaging among key voter groups.
In Delhi, Haryana, and Maharashtra, the RSS executed an extensive grassroots outreach programme, organising thousands of small gatherings to disseminate the BJP’s key messages. A dedicated technological hub was established to monitor voter sentiment and provide real-time feedback, allowing the BJP to adjust its strategy dynamically. The synergy between the RSS and the BJP played a pivotal role in the party’s ability to overcome challenges and secure victories in critical states.
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Looking Ahead: BJP Roadmap For Future Elections
With the BJP regaining its electoral momentum, the focus now shifts to upcoming state elections, particularly in Bihar and West Bengal. The Bihar assembly elections will be a crucial test for the BJP’s alliance-management skills, given the complexities of state politics and the presence of strong regional players. In West Bengal, the BJP will aim to capitalise on the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Trinamool Congress while consolidating its gains from previous elections.
For the Congress, the road ahead remains uncertain. If Rahul Gandhi cannot assert strong leadership and unify the I.N.D.I.A bloc, the Opposition’s chances of mounting a credible challenge to the BJP shortly appear bleak. The Congress must address its structural weaknesses, improve its ground-level organisation, and adopt a more nuanced electoral strategy if it hopes to remain relevant in the evolving political landscape.
The writer is a technocrat, political analyst, and author.
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