Ahead of the mega grand opposition meeting in Patna last month, Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar said the 2024 Lok Sabha polls could happen before schedule. This led to rise in speculation that the general elections could be held together with the four state elections of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana, with leaders of many other parties also voicing such a hunch.
Any possibility of early Lok Sabha elections, however, remains a rumour at this stage as the Election Commission of India, or even the ruling BJP, has not said anything to this effect as of now. After Nitish Kumar made the assertion, Union minister Giriraj Singh, in fact, was reported to have taken a jibe at him, saying the former has become a "soothsayer".
The last time general elections were called early was in 2004. The polls were by advanced by eight months, and the results handed then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee a shocking defeat. So, will the BJP risk an early national poll this time?
Let's take a look at what are the pros and cons of calling an early election for the ruling BJP, and which one outweighs the other.
What BJP Will Gain From Early Lok Sabha Election
At a time when the opposition is intensifying efforts to put up a united front, calling an early election would take them off guard, giving them less time to unite, strategise and prepare a common minimum programme.
As per initial surveys, the BJP may not do well in the four state elections to be held at the end of the year. Surveys predict a loss in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while in Telangana it may be relegated to third position after BRS and Congress.
In Madhya Pradesh, an ABP-CVoter survey has shown the Congress under Kamal Nath ahead in the fight against four-term CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
In Chhattisgarh, it is general consensus that the BJP has become weak after Raman Singh, and CM Bhupesh Baghel is well positioned for a return. The warring factions of Congress leaders Baghel and TS Singh Deo have patched up too.
In Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot is giving tough fight to the BJP despite the state having a history of alternating governments. Additionally, the BJP is suffering from high factionalism in the state, while the Congress seems to have sorted out the differences between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot for the time being.
In Telangana, the Congress seems to be emerging as the main contender to BRS as highlighted by the entry of 35 BRS leaders into the grand old party recently.
The Karnataka loss has demotivated the BJP cadre in states going to polls, and any a loss, setback or poor performance in the four states could demoralise the cadre ahead of the general elections. These states together send 82 MPs to Parliament, and the BJP had won 66 of these seats (80%) in the 2019 elections.
Some could argue that the BJP lost three states even in 2018 and still swept the 2019 polls. However, in 2018, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka and had won Himachal as well a year ago.
This time, it has lost the Hindi-speaking Himachal state, though small, and was handed a big defeat in Karnataka. Losing the state elections this time will be different, as it would put the momentum in favour of the opposition in the stronger way.
This would also strengthen the Congress party’s narrative that people fed up with price rise, unemployment, poverty, and farm distress are backing its "five guarantees".
Hence, advancing the general elections would help the BJP overcome its weakness in states and deprive the opposition of sufficient time to regroup and present a united and collective challenge. The party would hope that going into elections together and fighting in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose popularity ratings are still very high, could also help it reverse its fortunes in some of the states.
This would also reaffirm that the BJP is committed to its stand of holding simultaneous elections across India in the future.
What Early LS Polls Is A Bad Idea For Ruling BJP
The previous record of holding early general elections has not been good for the BJP. In 2004, it was considered the favourite to win the election, but lost shockingly to the Congress-led UPA.
Advancing the polls could also indicate that the BJP is not confident of doing well in state elections and in turn give strength to the opposition.
The coupling of state elections with national also carries certain risks. In simultaneous polls in India, as happened in states like Odisha, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, parties that do well in state elections get an advantage in national elections — like Biju Janata Dal, TRS/ BRS, and YSR Congress.
A voter has to press two buttons on the EVM, one for Vidhan Sabha and the other for Lok Sabha, and many end up pressing the button for the same party, with little split voting visible, except for maybe in urban areas. This means if the BJP performs poorly in state elections, it could have a rub-off impact on national elections, as voting takes place on the same day and it may not be able to retain all the 66 seats it won from these states in 2019.
So, it is possible that Modi may have to bear in the national elections the consequences of the party's poor performance in states if the polls are held together. Calling early elections could hence prove to be counterproductive.
For the ruling BJP, therefore, it will not be a great idea after all to risk a national election for the sake of staving off a disastrous performance in states. Keeping national and state elections separate will be good for the BJP.
The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.
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