Elon Musk, the eccentric founder of Tesla and xAI, projected the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) exceeding the intellect of the brightest human by next year, or at the latest by 2026. The conversation with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's wealth fund, spanned various topics, including the future capabilities of AI and the challenges faced in its development.
"If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years," Musk said.
Interestingly enough, this is not the first time the billionaire entrepreneur has warned against AI, as he sounded a similar warning during a podcast only last month.
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AI Limitations
Musk, who played a pivotal role in the founding of OpenAI before starting his venture, xAI, as a competitive endeavour, emphasised the current limitations AI faces due to the scarcity of electricity and advanced computing chips. He revealed that the anticipated improvement of Grok, xAI's AI chatbot, to version 2, is slated for completion by May. This advancement, however, is hindered by a lack of sufficient Nvidia H100 GPUs — 20,000 of which are necessary for training the model.
Looking ahead, Musk stated that the development of further versions, such as Grok 3, would require an even more substantial number of chips, estimated at around 100,000.
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Need For More Electricity
Despite these hurdles, Musk highlighted a shift in the bottleneck for AI development from chip availability to the need for more electricity over the coming years. This insight points to a growing demand for resources as AI technologies become more sophisticated and widespread.
In addition to his remarks on AI, Musk touched upon the automotive industry, particularly praising Chinese car manufacturers for their competitiveness. He underscored the significant challenges they pose to Tesla and other global carmakers, echoing his previous warnings about the impact of Chinese dominance in the absence of trade barriers.
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On Tesla Strike
The conversation also briefly covered the recent labour strike against Tesla in Sweden, with Musk indicating a resolution to the conflict, stating, "I think the storm has passed on that front." This sentiment was supported by Tangen, who mentioned a recent meeting between Norway's $1.5 trillion sovereign wealth fund — one of Tesla's most significant investors — and the electric vehicle (EV) company's chair, which provided updates on the situation.
Musk's legal battle with OpenAI over its deviation from a non-profit mission towards profit-oriented goals was also noted, marking a continuing saga in the tech mogul's complex relationship with the AI sector. As developments in artificial intelligence continue to unfold, Musk's predictions and comments offer a glimpse into the rapid advancements and challenges that lie ahead in the technology and automotive industries.
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Similar Warnings Earlier
Musk, who is currently embroiled in a legal dispute with OpenAI, the creator of viral AI chatbot ChatGPT, last month asserted that AI is poised to surpass the cognitive capabilities of any individual human by 2025. Musk's lawsuit against the company, led by Sam Altman, accuses OpenAI of violating their 'founding agreement' through its collaboration with tech giant Microsoft.
During the conversation, Kurzweil informed Rogan that achieving artificial intelligence at the level of human cognition will materialise by 2029. He said: "We're not quite there yet, but we're on track, and by 2029, it will rival any individual. I'm actually being cautious. Some anticipate it happening as early as next year or the year after."