The onset of Southwest Monsoon is imminent as meteorologists forecast its advance into the South Andaman Sea and parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands by May 19, 2024. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and the adjoining south Tamil Nadu coast, with a trough extending to Lakshadweep at lower tropospheric levels on Thursday.
The weather system is expected to bring fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and south Karnataka. Additionally, isolated light to moderate rainfall with similar weather conditions (30-40 kmph winds) is anticipated over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, and Rayalaseema in the coming week.
Kerala, TN Rains - Top Points
- On Thursday, significant rainfall was recorded over Kerala between 8.30 AM and 2.30 PM, with Aruvikkara AWS reporting 47.5mm, Palode recording 12.5 mm, and Peringammala ARG measuring 23.0 mm.
- The IMD said: "Isolated very heavy rainfall very likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during May 17-19. Kerala & Mahe May 18-19 and South Interior Karnataka during May 18-20 , 2024. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall also very likely over Tamil Nadu on May 16 & 20 and Kerala on 20 May, 2024."
According to the IMD, the wet spell, featuring isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall, is expected to persist over southern Peninsular India until May 22. Additionally, isolated instances of extremely heavy rainfall are highly probable over Tamil Nadu on May 16 and 20, as well as over Kerala on May 20.
IMD also issued an orange alert for Palakkad and Malappuram on May 18, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, and Idukki on May 19, and in seven districts of the state on May 20. Additionally, it noted that while an orange alert has been issued for some districts on May 20, the expected rainfall is likely to be on par with that of a red alert.
- Over the past 150 years, the onset of the monsoon over Kerala has shown considerable variation, with the earliest recorded onset on May 11, 1918, and the latest on June 18, 1972, according to data from the IMD.
- Recent years have seen differing arrival dates, with the monsoon reaching Kerala on June 8 last year, May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020.
- IMD's forecast for the upcoming monsoon season suggests above-normal rainfall across India, with favorable La Niña conditions expected to develop by August-September.
- In April 2024, parts of the country experienced scorching temperatures, breaking records in several states and significantly impacting people's health and livelihoods.
