Wayanad Floods 'Directly Linked To Global Warming': Climate Experts Blame Rising Air And Sea Temperatures

Kerala Weather: Wayanad faced devastating landslides due to heavy monsoon rains, resulting in over 200 deaths. This vulnerability is attributed to state's geographical features, climate change effects

Wayanad Landslides: Kerala is once again grappling with the aftermath of an extreme weather event, as Wayanad district endures one of the most devastating landslides in recent memory, triggered by relentless monsoon rains. In the early hours of July 30, multiple landslides swept through several villages in the district, claiming nearly 200 lives and injuring many others.

Kerala, which receives the second-highest monsoon rainfall in India, records an average annual rainfall of about 3,107 mm, with 75% of this occurring between June and September. The state’s geographical features, with the Arabian Sea to the west and the Western Ghats to the east, make it particularly vulnerable to heavy rains. The orography of the region strongly influences rainfall distribution, with the mountainous areas receiving significantly more rainfall compared to the coastal belt.

Despite Kerala’s historical rainfall patterns, recent years have seen severe floods attributed to intense precipitation during the southwest monsoon. Experts suggest that beyond meteorological factors, climate change and unplanned development are key contributors to these catastrophic events.

"Rainfall in Kannur district has been 21% above average between June 1 and July 30, while Wayanad experienced a 14% deficit, and Idukki and Ernakulam saw deficits up to 25%. Such spatial variability in monsoon rainfall is expected to intensify with ongoing global warming,” explained Dr. Akshay Deoras, who is a research scientist in the UK, at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading.

Kerala has witnessed a steady rise in extreme weather events over the past decade, with notable examples including Cyclone Ockhi in 2017, the catastrophic floods of 2018, and another bout of heavy rainfall in August 2019.

According to a 2020 report, 'Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region', by the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, the interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall is projected to increase throughout the 21st century, with a higher frequency of localised heavy rainfall events enhancing flood risks across India.

Wayanad Floods: The Role Of Climate Change

Numerous studies have shown that rising global temperatures, driven by human-induced climate change, have led to more frequent extreme rainfall events (ERE) associated with the monsoon, thunderstorms, and short-term cloudbursts. These events, lasting from a few hours to several days, have become more common in recent decades over the Indian subcontinent.

“Climate change is drastically altering rainfall patterns in Wayanad. What was once a cool, humid environment with consistent rainfall is now marked by drier, hotter summers and intense monsoon downpours, increasing the risk of landslides,” said Mariam Zachariah, research associate at Imperial College London.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, echoed these sentiments: "Monsoon patterns have changed, becoming more erratic. Earlier, we saw uniform rains during the monsoon season, but now we witness pre-monsoon-like thundershowers. Despite heavy showers, Kerala has yet to surpass its average rainfall this season. Rising air and ocean temperatures have increased moisture levels, making the atmosphere unstable, directly linked to global warming.”

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Unplanned Development And Its Impact

Deforestation, rapid urbanisation, and unplanned development significantly exacerbate the climate crisis in India. Development plans often fail to complement the ecological balance of mountainous terrains, leading to increased vulnerability to landslides.

“Road construction must follow scientific techniques. Currently, roads are built or widened without proper measures like slope stability, retaining walls, and rock bolting. There is a huge gap between planning and implementation,” said Professor YP Sundriyal, head of the Department of Geology at HNB Garhwal University.

The Western Ghats, classified as an ecologically fragile region, have seen significant forest cover loss, contributing to increased landslide risks. The region has been divided into four ecologically sensitive zones, with varying degrees of ecological fragility.

Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, emphasised the need for early warning systems to mitigate damage from natural disasters. “Landslide-prone areas in Kerala are mapped, and we need to monitor rainfall data in these hotspots to prepare early warning systems. This can save lives and livelihoods,” he said.

Professor Anjal Prakash, clinical associate professor and research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, suggested several measures to mitigate the impact of landslides and excessive rainfall linked to climate change. These include implementing robust early warning systems, strengthening infrastructure, and promoting sustainable land management practices like reforestation and controlled deforestation.