New Delhi: A black swan event, which is an unpredictable event having potentially severe consequences, can have a significant impact on the lives of people. Solar superstorms, which usually happen once in around 100 years, are such events, and they can pose a direct threat to the world’s internet infrastructure.
This impact of solar superstorms was investigated by Sangheetha Abdu Jyothi, an assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine, and the findings were part of a research paper that was presented at the SIGCOMM (Association for Computing Machinery's Special Interest Group on Data Communications) 2021, according to a Live Science report.
The study, which is yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal, states that large-scale internet outages can be caused by solar superstorms, and these outages can cover the entire globe and last for several months.
When does a solar superstorm occur?
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), also known as a solar storm, is the directional ejection of a large mass of highly magnetised particles from the Sun, the study states. The mist of magnetised particles that the Sun showers towards Earth are known as the solar wind and this electric wind is blocked by the Earth's magnetic shield, protecting humans from damage. The particles are careened towards the poles, resulting in breathtaking auroras.
However, once in a hundred years, the solar winds near the surface or in the corona of the Sun could become accelerated due to sudden releases of stored magnetic energy, and result in eruptions of mass and energy from the solar surface, known as solar storms.
In the study, Jyothi writes how a severe solar storm could plunge the world into an "internet apocalypse".
The study states that in extreme cases, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) produced due to solar storms have the potential to damage long-distance cables which form the backbone of the Internet.
What will happen if there is a global Internet collapse?
Service providers can suffer huge losses and cyber-physical systems can experience damage even in an Internet disruption lasting for a few minutes. Economic losses amounting to $7 billion can occur in the US if the internet is disrupted for a day. This can result in the loss of millions of livelihoods.
The internet remaining non-functional for days or even months is a worst-case scenario, something we have never encountered, mentions the paper.
How can solar storms cause an internet apocalypse?
The paper explains that a powerful solar superstorm is one of the greatest threats to the internet, with a potential for global impact. Solar superstorms have the potential to cause damage to man-made infrastructure, which is generally overlooked.
When did the largest solar events occur?
The largest solar events were recorded to have occurred between 1859 and 1921, long before the world came across modern technology, states the study. Communication networks were affected and extensive power outages were caused during these events. The probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events that directly impact the earth is estimated to be 1.6% to 12% per decade, according to the paper.
Jyothi has mentioned in her paper that humans have a limited understanding of the impacts of solar storms on the current infrastructure.
What does the study investigate and find?
The study analyses the threats posed to the internet by high-risk events such as solar superstorms. Also, the vulnerabilities in the design of current internet topology and associated infrastructure such as Domain Name System (DNS) and Autonomous Systems have been identified. The study shows that internet infrastructure components are more prevalent in regions susceptible to solar events, especially higher latitudes. Upon investigation of the impact of GICs on infrastructure components, the highest risk of damage was found for submarine cables.
The study also compared the vulnerability to internet disconnection for the US and Asian countries and found that the US was more vulnerable. There was a wide variation in the potential impact of solar superstorms on different regions, the study found. The paper states that the risk of damage was low for local and regional internet connections. This is because GICs don't affect fiber-optic cables, the study mentions.
The paper also states that under the sea, the cables are equipped with repeaters to boost the optical signals, and these repeaters are vulnerable to geomagnetic currents. Even if one repeater goes offline, entire cables could be made useless.
The author also writes that the failure of enough undersea cables in a particular region could result in entire continents getting cut off from one another.
The study also discusses open questions on how to improve internet resiliency, and about how to consider solar superstorms while designing Internet topology and other Internet sub-systems.
The author mentions that Asia has a higher resilience to such storms. Countries like Australia, New Zealand, and other island countries will lose most of their long-distance connections due to solar storms.
How is this study useful?
This study primarily focuses on the threats posed by solar storms to the Internet and plans defences against such storms. Jyothi writes in the paper that cables must be laid at lower latitudes as the strength of induced currents will be much lower in those regions.
The paper notes that the long-term resilience of the Internet is extremely important and that operators should consider disaster preparation and recovery plans, and take extreme solar weather seriously. The author writes in the paper that sentinel spacecraft can issue early warnings of solar superstorms just 13 hours prior to its occurrence, as a result of which future planning is extremely essential. She explains the importance of preparing the internet infrastructure for an eventual catastrophe, so that disaster management can be facilitated efficiently.