Ahead of the recent surprise attacks from Hamas on Israel, the US intelligence community issued two assessments based on the intelligence shared by Israel, warning the Biden administration about a growing risk of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, CNN reported, citing sources.
The two separate intelligence updates on September 28 and October 5 warned about Hamas preparing to escalate rocket attacks across the border. A CIA wire on October 5 cautioned generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. A day ahead of the attack, US officials received reports from Israel signalling unusual Hamas activity, suggesting an imminent attack, as reported by CNN.
However, none of the assessments by US intelligence offered any tactical details or indications of the scope, scale, and brutality of the assault carried out by Hamas on October 7, CNN reported, citing sources. Moreover, there is uncertainty pertaining to whether any of these US assessments were shared with Israel.
The intelligence community writes about intelligence assessments to inform policymakers and enable decision-making. “The problem is that none of this is new,” sources told CNN. “This is something that has historically been the norm between Hamas and Israel. I think what happened is everyone saw these reports and were like, ‘Yeah of course. But we know what this will look like’,” the source said.
White House and US intelligence officials were given repeated warnings pertaining to a buildup of Hamas weapons and anger among Palestinians, a Middle Eastern diplomat in Washington, DC, also told CNN.
“The arms that exist in Gaza is beyond the imagination of anybody’s thinking,” they warned, the diplomat said, as quoted by CNN. “The arms that exist in the West Bank, via Hamas, are also becoming a real problem, and Hamas control of the West Bank is a real issue. This in every meeting, every meeting in the last year and a half,” the diplomat added.