Fiscal Woes, Policy Setbacks, Internal Rebellion — Why Sunak, Tories Are On Thin Ice Going Into UK Polls

As UK grapples with economic recession, trouble mounts for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he risks losing his parliamentary seat.

New Delhi: After nearly 15 years in power within the UK Parliament, the Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, stares at a crushing defeat against the Labour Party in the upcoming elections. The projection mirrors the growing discontent among the public with the deteriorating state of affairs in the UK – characterised by recurrent policy setbacks, unfulfilled promises, and escalating living costs. As the nation grapples with economic recession, trouble mounts for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he risks losing his parliamentary seat.

Here’s Why Sunak’s Party Could Be Headed For A Crushing Defeat:

• A survey involving over 18,000 people conducted on Wednesday predicted a landslide victory for the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, over the ruling Conservative Party under PM Rishi Sunak. The Opposition Labour Party is projected to secure 403 seats – comfortably surpassing the 326 seats required for a parliamentary majority.


• The latest findings, generated through multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP) techniques by YouGov, echo similar predictions from a recent comprehensive poll over the weekend, predicting a dismal outcome for the Tories. According to these projections, Labour Party is poised to gain 201 seats while the Conservative Party, under Sunak's leadership, is anticipated to plummet to a mere 155 seats – marking a loss of 210 seats.


• These projections suggest a more severe defeat for the Conservative Party than the setback suffered under former Tory Prime Minister John Major in 1997, when Labour, led by Tony Blair, left them with a meagre 165 MPs.


• Meanwhile, Sunak also faces potential rebellion from within his own party ranks over a proposed legislation aimed at criminalising homelessness and granting law enforcement powers to crack down on rough sleepers on the country's streets.


• As per a report in The Times, several Conservative Party MPs have voiced opposition to the measures outlined in the Criminal Justice Bill, currently going through House of Commons. These proposals, spearheaded by former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, entail hefty fines of up to 2,500 pounds or imprisonment for rough sleepers in England and Wales.


• Notable Conservative figures, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Science Minister Michelle Donelan, and Levelling Up Minister Michael Gove, are among those at risk of losing their parliamentary seats. Other senior Tories facing electoral uncertainty include Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.


• The Liberal Democrats, according to an earlier YouGov projection, are on course to gain one additional seat, reaching 49 seats, marking a noteworthy resurgence without any significant alterations to their national vote share. In Scotland, YouGov's projections indicate a comfortable lead for Labour as the largest party.


• Based on the headline results derived from the MRP model, Labour is projected to secure 41% of the vote, with the Conservatives trailing at 24%, followed by the Liberal Democrats at 12%, the Greens at 7%, far-right Reform UK at 12%, and others at 1%. YouGov's survey, conducted between March 7 and March 27, interviewed 18,761 British adults.