Crimean Bridge Blast: Any Further Escalation Could Mean A Dangerous End To Russia-Ukraine War, Experts Say

Though Ukraine has not yet claimed responsibility for the Kerch Strait bridge blast, the situation is very tense in the region. Experts say this will lead to further escalation of the tension.

In a massive blow to the possibilities of brokering any peace in the Russia-Ukraine situation, the only bridge connecting mainland Russia to Crimea was badly damaged in a sudden explosion Sunday. This explosion has jeopardised the already dim hope of a solution to the dispute between the two nations and has given Russia a reason to strike back with more might. 

 

The explosion has targeted the key supply route between Russia and Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Russia had conducted a referendum in Crimea in the same year, which saw an overwhelming majority of 95.5% voting in favour of Moscow. Ever since, this region has been witnessing a massive war of nerve. As a result of Russian action in Crimea, Ukraine blocked the only canal that provided fresh water from Kherson to Crimea. Russia restored this canal as part of its foremost war objective in Ukraine.  

Why Crimea Bridge Blast Is A Serious Escalation 

To understand the gravity of the latest incident, one needs to understand the location, connectivity and significance of this bridge. Kerch bridge is a pair of two facilities, one four-lane road and one double-track railway, connecting Tasman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai in Russia to Kerch Peninsula of Crimea. This establishes a very critical route of supply from mainland Russia to Crimea, maintaining civilian and military supply at the same time. Russia has been able to maintain unchecked and uninterrupted line of supply to Kherson and nearby areas via this very supply route during the ongoing war with Ukraine.

 

Following the blast, President Vladimir Putin immediately swung into action and ordered a government commission to examine the Kerch bridge emergency in Crimea. Russia has had a very clear position with regards to this bridge, and there are fears Moscow could apply its nuclear doctrine to any threat to this bridge. The doctrine allows for nuclear strike for aggression against Russian federation with conventional weapons when the state is facing an existential threat. Putin had earlier made his intentions very much clear that he might press the nuclear button in such a situation. The same threat has found an echo in the statements of other senior Russian functionaries, including former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev who has many times pronounced that Moscow has the right to defend itself with nuclear weapons if it is pushed beyond its limits.

 

So the question rises if Moscow has really been pushed beyond its limits with the attack on Crimea-Russia lifeline bridge? Those who understand Russia and its response in similar situations in the history could say yes. Russia has been very unequivocal in its response against “terror” and it took no time in terming this attack as an act of terror. Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already said Kyiv’s action of destructing civilian infrastructure displays its “terrorist nature”.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also explained the level of grave threat from Ukraine. His remarks at the fourth meeting of the United Russia Party General Council Commission for International Cooperation and Support for Compatriots Abroad, held on October 7, were very much categorical in this respect. “The special military operation has revealed a few alarming facts, including illegal military biological programmes at Pentagon-installed labs, as well as experiments with the creation of prohibited chemicals,” he said.

 

Lavrov also laid bare Ukraine’s provocation for the nuclear strike by underlining Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s own statement. “Zelensky called on his Western handlers to take a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia. This character actually gave the world further evidence of the threat emanating from the Kiev regime. It is to neutralise that very threat that the special military operation was launched.” 

‘This Will Lead To Further Escalation Of War’

In the current situation, the Crimean bridge blast has become a very deadly trigger, both reactionary as well as provocative. Experts believe this will lead to further escalation of the tension and that might set a disastrous precedent in the region. 

 

Gulshan Sachdeva, Professor at School of International Studies at JNU, expressed fear that the Crimean bridge incident will intensify the war situation. “The bridge is very significant for Russia so Russia will definitely take revenge,” he said, while speaking to ABP News. 

 

In his opinion, “both sides are talking about nuclear option, which is serious but this doesn’t seem to be a real possibility in near future”. 

 

Ashok Sajjanhar, former Ambassador to countries like Kazakhstan, Swedan, Latvia, said the Crimean bridge blast has been one of the most lethal strikes by Ukraine. He compared it to the attack on the sunken Russian warship, Moskva. “It was a very daring attack and breach of Russian security as well as confidence. It will definitely lead to further escalation of war,” he said while speaking to ABP News.  

 

Though Kyiv, which previously took credit for several strikes, has not yet claimed responsibility for the Kerch Strait bridge blast, the situation is very tense in the region and any further escalation could lead to a very dangerous culmination of this war.