China reported a drop in its population for the second consecutive year in 2023, following a decline in the birth rate and an increase in deaths after the Covid-19 lockdown was lifted. This is expected to have significant long-term effects on the country's economic growth potential, according to Reuters. The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the total population in China decreased by 2.08 million, or 0.15 per cent, to 1.409 billion in 2023.
This decline surpasses the population decrease of 8,50,000 in 2022, marking the first decline since 1961 during the Great Famine of the Mao Zedong era.
China's 2023 death rate of 7.87 deaths per 1,000 people was higher than the rate of 7.37 deaths in 2022.
According to Reuters, in the early part of last year, a significant number of people succumbed to the nationwide surge in Covid cases. The surge occurred after the country, which had been under lockdown for three years, effectively containing the virus, lifted restrictions abruptly in December 2022. The total number of deaths last year increased by 6.6 per cent, reaching 11.1 million.
New births experienced a 5.7% decline, totalling 9.02 million, and the birth rate reached a historic low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people. This is a decrease from the 2022 rate of 6.77 births, according to Reuters.
The decline in births in the country has been a long-standing trend, stemming from the implementation of the one-child policy from 1980 to 2015 and the subsequent rapid urbanisation. Similar to earlier economic booms in Japan and South Korea, substantial populations migrated from China's rural farms to urban areas, where the cost of raising children is higher.
Why Chinese Couples Are Not Interested In Babies
In 2023, the decline in childbirth in China was exacerbated by several factors. Youth unemployment reached record highs, wages for many white-collar workers decreased, and a crisis in the property sector, which holds over two-thirds of household wealth, intensified.
The latest data raises concerns about the diminishing growth prospects of the world's second-largest economy. The decrease in the workforce and consumer base, coupled with the escalating costs of elderly care and retirement benefits, is adding strain to indebted local governments.
Several factors contribute to the reluctance of many Chinese couples to have children. High childcare and education costs serve as deterrents, and uncertainty in the job market discourages women from interrupting their careers. Additionally, gender discrimination and traditional expectations that women assume the primary caretaker role in the family further exacerbate the issue.
President Xi Jinping stated last year that women should share "good family tradition stories," emphasising the importance of "actively cultivating a new culture of marriage and childbearing." He linked this cultural shift to national development objectives.
According to Reuters, several local governments have introduced measures to incentivize childbirth, such as tax deductions, extended maternity leave, and housing subsidies. However, a Beijing policy institute noted that many of these policies have not been effectively implemented due to inadequate funding and a lack of motivation by local government.