Guwahati: As Tripura goes to polls in less than a month, the assertion of tribal identity by regional parties is in the spotlight. Scion of Tripura royal family Pradyot Bikram Manikya DebBarma's Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA) Motha, which has been voicing tribals' issues and demanding a separate state for the indigenous population, has emerged as a key player in this election.
With nearly three weeks to go for the polls, there is a tug of war going on between the opposition Congress and Left Front and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to get DebBarma's party in their fold.
DebBarma rose to prominence in Tripura after his newly floated tribal party swept the autonomous district council polls in April last year within months of its formation.
The district council election results, where TIPRA Motha won 18 out of 28 seats, has changed the political equation in the state that borders Bangladesh.
DebBarma's strong pitch for 'Greater Tipraland', comprising all areas where the tribals of Tripura reside, has found resonance among the indigenous population and acted as an unifying factor. The pitch has helped in consolidating the tribal vote bank under one party.
On the other hand, another tribal party, Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), which was a partner in the ruling BJP government, has seen its support base getting eroded rapidly after the district council results.
In fact, the IPFT is now planning to merge with TIPRA Motha ahead of the polls.
Political analysts say that the statehood demand would affect results in 20 of the 60 assembly constituencies where tribals have considerable clout and others where they have a consequential majority.
DebBarma has said he would form an alliance with any party that would fulfill his demand of 'Greater Tipraland'. The tribals form one-third of the state's estimated 40 lakh population.
However, the problem with agreeing to DebBarma's 'Greater Tipraland' demand for the national parties is two fold.
Firstly, parts of the areas demanded to be included in 'Greater Tipraland' are in other states and even other countries, including in Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Secondly, agreeing to it will create yet another micro-state and risk alienating the Bengalis of Tripura as well as Cachar in Assam who have been BJP loyalists in recent elections.
For Congress and the Left Front, it is an electoral battle for their survival. After ruling the state for consecutive 25 years, the Left front has seen a gradual erosion of party cadres as they switched sides following their defeat in last assembly election.
With TIPRA Motha eating into the tribal vote bank mainly of the Left parties, the front looks like a pale shadow of its former self.
Congress, on the other hand, is trying to build its base from scratch and has held the hand of the Left Front again.
BJP's track record in governance is nothing to write home about. Last year, the party replaced Biplab Deb with Manik Saha as the Chief Minister due to internal squabbles.
Unemployment and dearth of economic activity in the remote state is still a burning issue.
In a possible scenario of a hung assembly, the TIPRA Motha is likely to emerge as a decisive factor and may well be the kingmaker in the high octane Tripura election.
(The author is a senior journalist covering the Northeast.)