According to the opinion poll, the BJP is likely to face a major drubbing in Rajasthan which has a 200-member assembly. The party which had won 163 seats in 2013 will be reduced to just 56 seats. Congress which was limited to measly 21 seats in the previous outing will make a handsome turnaround with 142 seats. Other parties will hang on to two seats, the survey reveals. The poll projection ahead of the election on December 7 could be seen as a major setback for the BJP which is seeking a second term under the leadership of Vasundhara Raje. Just before the election commission’s announcement of poll dates, Raje announced free electricity for farmers. Congress fumed at the declaration and accused the election commission of postponing the date announcement only to favour the BJP before the model code of conduct gets into effect. As far as the vote share is concerned, the Congress is seen leading with a comfortable vote share of 49.9% as against BJP’s 34.3%.
The opinion poll has predicted a close battle in Madhya Pradesh but is giving the Congress a clear edge in the 230 seats up for grabs. The survey could ring alarm bells for Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan who is attempting to win a fourth term. As per the data, BJP is likely to win 108 seats while the Congress is set to bag 122 seats. Other parties in the battle are seen drawing a blank. The opinion poll may raise morale of the Congress party which has made incremental changes in the leadership in the state in the last few months. The party is leaving no stones unturned to make a mighty comeback after a string of back to back losses. The vote share percentage is, however, very close between the two parties here. BJP’s vote share is 41.5% while 42.2% is of the Congress. BJP has won 165 seats in 2013 while Congress had just won 58. Polling is scheduled for November 28 in the state.
In the state of Chhattisgarh, again a neck-and-neck battle is predicted; however, Congress is likely to out-muscle the incumbent BJP. According to the survey, the BJP, which had won 49 seats in 2013 assembly elections, will be reduced to 40 seats. On the other hand, the Congress party which bagged 39 seats earlier is projected to win 47 seats in the 90-member assembly. The vote share percentage of BJP is 38.6% while Congress’ is 38.9%. The first phase of polling in Chhattisgarh is on November 12 while the second is on November 20.
Other key findings of the survey:
- Top two issues in Rajasthan are water supply 21.8% and employment 17%, in Madhya Pradesh employment 18% and water supply 15.7% and in Chattisgarh roads 21.6% and employment 16.5%.
- Interpretation: Employment is a running theme and features in the top two priorities for all 3 states. Water supply is an issue that is salient in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh while roads are accorded higher priority in Chattisgarh. This reflects upon peculiar developmental needs of the respective states. Higher importance of employment as an election issues indicates a negative sentiment on the street pertaining to personal welfare.
- Significant chunk of respondents are blaming fixing the responsibility for present state of affairs on state government, Chief Minister and local MLAs.
- Anti-incumbency is uniformly high across all 3 states, directed against states governments, Chief Ministers and local MLAs
- Interpretation: 52.7% of respondents in Rajasthan fix the problems in governance on the state government, executive and legislators. The same cumulative figures for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh stand at 42.8% and 44.6% respectively. This indicates presence of strong anti-incumbency sentiment across the 3 states and a lukewarm anti-incumbency sentiment against the central government
- Weak anti-incumbency sentiment against central government, Prime Minister and Member of Parliaments
- Interpretation: Central government and Prime Minister Modi in a stark contrast to state governments and respective Chief Ministers is facing lukewarm anti-incumbency. Across all 3 states more than 50% of respondents did not want to change the central government or the Prime Minister. Therefore, in a situation where state governments are unpopular but central government is popular we might observe the split voting pattern.
- Perception of win is in favor of INC in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, whereas in Chattisgarh BJP is being perceived as the winner
- Interpretation: In Rajasthan the result seems to be obvious and respondents concur that INC will win this election. In case of Chattisgarh the respondents feel that BJP will eventually win and in Madhya Pradesh the perception is that INC might defeat BJP. This becomes significant in case of a tight electoral race. Perception of win often triggers a last-minute swing through the bandwagon effect whereby marginal voters tend to favor the winning side. In this case BJP might benefit from it in Chattisgarh and INC in Madhya Pradesh.
- BJP CMs of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh enjoy higher approval ratings than their lead challengers from the opposition. In Rajasthan Sachin Pilot comfortably outshines Vasundhara Raje in terms of popularity
- Interpretation: BJP is managing to remain in the fight in MP and Chhattisgarh on the shoulders of its popular Chief Ministers. Whereas in Rajasthan, unpopularity of Vasundhara Raje is hurting the party. In this election leadership quality factor is favoring INC in Rajasthan and BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
- Narendra Modi leads Rahul Gandhi across all states in “split voting phenomenon”
- Interpretation: People are increasingly voting for INC in some measures in the state elections, however, when it comes to central government and Prime Minister’s post, there is currently no competition between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.