New Delhi: According to a Reuters poll of medical experts, a third wave of coronavirus infections is likely to hit India by October, and while it will be better controlled than the previous outbreak, the pandemic will remain a public health threat for at least another year.
The June 3-17 snap survey of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors from around the world revealed that there has been a significant increase in vaccinations, which will likely provide some cover for a new outbreak.
Over 85 percent of those polled, or 21 of 24, predicted that the next wave would arrive in October, with three predicting it in August and 12 in September. The remaining three stated that it was between November and February.
However, more than 70% of experts, or 24 of 34, believe that any new outbreak would be better controlled than the current one, which has been far more devastating - with shortages of vaccines, medicines, oxygen, and hospital beds - than the smaller first surge in infections last year.
"It will be more controlled, as cases will be much less because more vaccinations would have been rolled out and there would be some degree of natural immunity from the second-wave," said Dr Randeep Guleria, director at All India Institute Of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
So far, India has only vaccinated approximately 5% of its estimated 950 million eligible population, leaving many millions vulnerable to infections and deaths.
While the majority of healthcare experts predicted that the vaccination drive would pick up significantly this year, they warned against removing restrictions too soon, as some states have.
When asked if children and those under the age of 18 would be most vulnerable in a potential third wave, nearly two-thirds of experts or 26 to 40 said yes.
"The reason being they are a completely virgin population in terms of vaccination because currently there is no vaccine available for them," said Dr Pradeep Banandur, head of epidemiology department at National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS).
Experts warn that the situation could worsen.
"If children get infected in large numbers and we are not prepared, there is nothing you can do at the last minute," said Dr Devi Shetty, a cardiologist at Narayana Health and an advisor to the Karnataka state government on pandemic response planning.
"It will be a whole different problem as the country has very, very few pediatric intensive care unit beds, and that is going to be a disaster."
However, 14 experts said that children were not in danger.
A senior health ministry official stated earlier this week that children are vulnerable and susceptible to infections, but that analysis has revealed a less severe health impact.
"COVID-19 is a solvable problem, as obviously it was easy to get a solvable vaccine. In two years, India likely will develop herd immunity through vaccine and exposure of the disease," said Robert Gallo, director of the University of Maryland's Institute of Human Virology and international scientific advisor to the Global Virus Network.
(With inputs from agencies)