With about 34 percent of the total vote, the Congress seems closest to hitting the majority mark, though it is likely to face stiff competition from a belligerent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that is expected to corner 31 percent of the total vote.
In what may be good news for the Congress, the survey found the party to have a comfortable lead over its rivals in the Majha region. It is expected to secure about two-fifths (40 percent) of the vote here, followed by the Akali-BJP combine (26 percent) and AAP (23 percent). However, in Doaba, the AAP emerges as the leading player with a likely vote share of 32 percent. It is closely followed by the Congress (29 percent). Support for the Akali-BJP coalition is low in this region, with only about a fourth (24 percent) of the voters expressing their preference for it.
The situation is a little more tricky in Malwa, a region which until fairly recently was thought to be an AAP stronghold, but has now become the site of a neck and neck battle between the AAP (33 percent) and the Congress (34 percent).
All else remaining constant, the Congress has the added advantage of having a widely popular leader at the helm. On being asked about who they would prefer as Punjab’s next CM, a plurality of voters (26 percent) said they would prefer Amarinder Singh. The corresponding figures for Parkash Singh Badal and Bhagwant Mann were 18 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
The survey found overwhelming evidence of anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling Akali-BJP coalition. In what may be viewed as a strong indictment of the regime, a vast majority (65 percent) of voters were opposed to giving the ruling coalition a second chance. Only about a fifth (20 percent) expressed a desire to see it back at the helm.
