New Delhi: Opining on the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) electoral prospects, political strategist Prashant Kishor said the ruling party will add significantly to its seats and vote share in south and east India, the two regions where its hold is weak-to-non-existent, barring Karnataka. Kishor also said despite the BJP's apparent dominance, neither the party nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible, pointing out that the opposition had three distinct and realistic chances of stopping the BJP juggernaut but frittered away the opportunities because of laziness and misplaced strategies.
"They (BJP) will either be first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing. They will be number one in Odisha for sure. You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal", news agency PTI quoted Prashant as saying.
In Tamil Nadu, Prashant Kishor remarked on the BJP's potential to secure a double-digit vote share. Despite significant potential, Kishor highlighted the BJP's historical struggle to surpass 50 seats in key states like Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Kerala, which collectively hold 204 Lok Sabha seats.
However, he tempered expectations by stating that achieving the party's target of 370 seats is unlikely.
In Andhra Pradesh assembly polls, he said Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy would find it very difficult to come back. Kishor had worked for CM Reddy in 2019 when his YSRC party had vanquished the incumbent Telugu Desam Party (TDP), now a BJP ally.
Drawing parallels to former Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, Kishor criticised Reddy's focus on providing doles rather than addressing the broader aspirations of the electorate, noting a lack of substantial job creation or development initiatives in the state.
Prashant spoke on the insights of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, suggesting that the BJP's dominance will only be challenged if the opposition, particularly the Congress, can dent its strongholds in north and west India by around 100 seats. "And that's not going to happen, he says.By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions," he said, as per PTI.
The BJP has made a major and visible push to expand in south and east India over the years as its top leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have frequented these states.
On the other hand, the opposition has made little effort in these states.
Prashant Juxtaposes PM Modi And Rahul's Engagement To States
"Count the number of visits the PM had made to Tamil Nadu in the last five years versus Rahul Gandhi or Sonia Gandhi or any other opposition leader for that matter made in battleground states. Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success", he said in an apparent swipe at Rahul Gandhi.
Prashant Kishor weighed in on Rahul Gandhi's reported reluctance to contest from Amethi following his defeat to Smriti Irani in 2019, emphasising the importance of winning key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. He suggested that ceding spaces like Amethi could send the wrong message strategically, noting PM Modi's decision to contest from Uttar Pradesh alongside Gujarat in 2014, highlighting the significance of the Hindi heartland in national electoral outcomes.
Kishor dismissed the notion of a broad alliance to counter the BJP, arguing that a one-on-one contest is already prevalent in nearly 350 seats. He attributed the BJP's electoral success to the inability of opposition parties like Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP, and Trinamool Congress to effectively challenge the ruling party in their respective strongholds. "They have no narrative, face, or agenda", he said.
Prashant Kishor Dismisses 'Illusion' Of BJP's Invincibility Under PM Modi's Leadership
Prashant Kishor dismissed the notion that a third consecutive victory for the BJP would pave the way for an extended era of their dominance, drawing parallels to the decline of the Congress party following its historic win in 1984. He cautioned against the "illusion" of the BJP's invincibility under PM Modi's leadership, highlighting instances where opposition parties, particularly the Congress, failed to capitalise on the ruling party's vulnerabilities post-2014.
Kishor pointed out the BJP's electoral setbacks in 2015 and 2016, emphasising that the opposition's failure to exploit these moments allowed the BJP to bounce back.
He highlighted the BJP's electoral setbacks, particularly post-demonetisation and during the aftermath of the Covid outbreak, underscoring instances where the opposition failed to capitalise on these vulnerabilities. Despite PM Modi's dip in approval ratings following the pandemic and BJP's defeat in West Bengal, Kishor criticised opposition leaders for not mounting a significant challenge, allowing PM Modi to regain political ground.
Oppn Dropping Catches Against PM Modi: Prashant Kishor
He likened the situation to dropping catches in cricket, emphasising that a skilled player like PM Modi would capitalise on such opportunities to score big. Looking ahead, Kishor expressed concern about the potential ramifications of another significant mandate for Modi, especially given the prime minister's hints at major decisions in his third term.
"If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batter," Kishor said, as quoted by PTI.
Prashant highlighted the divergent reactions to the prospect of fundamental changes under the BJP's governance, with supporters anticipating positive transformations while opponents express concerns about potential adverse effects on the Constitution and democracy. He noted that individuals occupying the middle ground also harbor genuine apprehensions.
Despite his extensive work with various political parties since 2014, including the BJP, Congress, and regional factions, Kishor has redirected his focus towards his Jan Suraj Yatra initiative in Bihar since October 2022.