The Congress and the Bharath Rashtra Samithi (BRS) tabled a no-confidence motion against the government Wednesday over the violence in Manipur. The Northeastern state has been on the boil over ethnic violence since May but the matter took a turn for the worse after a video of two Manipur women being paraded naked on the streets of Kangpokpi village went viral.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier sought to hit back at the Opposition by comparing the bloc's acronym I-N-D-I-A to the East India Company and terrorist outfit Indian Mujahideen. The BJP also alleged that it was the Opposition that did not care about the people in Manipur and was running away from a discussion on it. The PM even said the INDIA bloc's conduct showed that the parties seemed to want to be in Opposition permanently.


The Opposition has, meanwhile, claimed that the BJP was "running away" from discussions on the Manipur issue and has remained steadfast on its demand that PM Modi deliver a statement on the Manipur violence in Parliament. PM Modi had condemned the viral video in his customary speech outside the House before the beginning of Parliament's monsoon session on July 20.


Owing to the Opposition's demand, the ruling NDA said that Home Minister Amit Shah would address the issue in Parliament. However, this has not been acceptable to the Opposition and as a result, the Congress (and the BRS) have introduced the vote of no confidence in Lok Sabha.


What Is A No-Confidence Motion?


The no-confidence motion is a formal proposal initiated by the opposition in the Lok Sabha, in accordance with Rule 198 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in Lok Sabha, to express their lack of confidence in the ruling government. If passed, the motion requires the ruling party to demonstrate its majority in the Lok Sabha, and failure to do so results in the government's resignation. 


To successfully move a no-confidence motion, a member requires the support of at least 50 MPs of the Lok Sabha. Once the motion is brought before the House, there is a designated period for debate and discussion, during which the government is given the opportunity to defend its position. Following the debate, a voting process takes place, and if the majority of the members vote in favor of the motion, it is passed, leading to the government's resignation.


What The Numbers Say?


But why would the Opposition, which has around 141 seats in the Lok Sabha introduce a vote of no confidence, knowing fully well that it does not stand a chance of winning? And does the BJP have a reason to worry over the no-confidence motion?


To understand this, let's take a look at how the two blocs are stacked up against each other first.


Opposition bloc INDIA has 141 members, and this is the core group whose support the Congress can bank on to support its no-confidence motion. In addition, the BRS, which has so far remained equidistant from both the INDIA bloc and the NDA, has also moved a no-confidence motion. The unallied bloc has fewer than 70 members in Lok Sabha.


Assuming that the entire Opposition votes against the government, the no-confidence motion would have fewer than 210 votes. To win the no-confidence vote, the government would need the support of 272 MPs. The BJP alone has 301 members in the Lok Sabha. This means it would be smooth sailing for the NDA.


So, why would the Congress dive into a battle that it knows it would lose hands down? The answer to the question perhaps lies in the "perception" and "optics". Going by the numbers, it's a clear win for the BJP-led NDA. But it won't be a "win" or "loss" for either INDIA or NDA if one takes into account the optics of it.


What Will INDIA Gain From The No-Confidence Motion?


The Opposition has made it clear that it would not budge on its demand that PM Modi present his thoughts on the Manipur violence in Parliament. PM Modi, who is not known to address press conferences or relent to the Opposition's demands, finds himself in a sticky position now.


PM Modi had not spoken on the Manipur issue in public until the video went viral. Even in his customary address before the monsoon session, he only mentioned the Manipur viral video and not the failure of the law and order in the northeastern state. The Opposition will take this opportunity to force him to deliver a statement.


This will serve two purposes. First, it would be INDIA's first "victory" against the government. This would mean that the united Opposition can actually work together even without a defined leadership. And second, it can put the Congress in a commanding seat at the united Opposition table in the next meeting.


This will also help the Opposition in Lok Sabha tear down the BJP's image of leading a "successful double-engine government". Manipur CM and BJP leader N Biren Singh's credentials are being questioned from many quarters after his failure to control the violence in his state even after nearly three months.


How Does NDA Benefit?


For the NDA, this will be a "mini victory" as it will cruise through the no-confidence motion. This will also be an opportunity to deflect attention from the Manipur issue. The PM in his customary address mentioned the atrocities on women in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The BJP later launched an attack on the Opposition over alleged barbarity on women in Bengal as well. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma had, in fact, put out a list of heinous crimes against women in Opposition states. If PM Modi delivers a statement, he is sure to highlight these.


PM Modi, who is known to tear through the Opposition through his sharp oratorical skills could puncture the image of a united Opposition under INDIA and launch a counterattack that could be sustained till the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.


With the Opposition failing to declare a leader for the Lok Sabha elections till now,  the BJP can use this opportunity to again highlight the question: "Modi vs who?"