The survey has found that the Modi government continues to enjoy great popularity across the nation.
NDA would win 342 seats if general elections were held now, up from the 339 seats which it won during the last Lok Sabha polls. In the case of UPA, its tally has risen to 66 from 62. Left parties are seen bagging 14 seats, had achieved 10 last time around. Others in the fray are slated to win 121.
As per the survey, the NDA shows a gain in vote share in all regions. There is an increase of vote share of 52% in North as compared to 45% in the 2014 polls. NDA seems to have regained ground it had lost to JDU/RJD/INC in Bihar last year. Though there is a significant loss in Punjab, but there is a gain in East with Assam and Orissa. In the East, the vote share has gone up to 38 per cent against 29 per cent in the 2014 LS polls. In West, there is a loss in the no. of seats but there is a slight gain in vote-share with 58 per cent as compared to 53% in 2014 LS polls. Similarly in South, the NDA has got a better hold with 50 seats and 35 per cent vote share. BJP has gained votes and seats in Andhra and Karnataka.
As per the opinion poll, PM Narendra Modi emerges as most popular leader with 47 per cent in the country. Nearly every second voter across country mentioned his name when asked 'Who in your opinion is the most popular political leader in the country at present'. Sonia Gandhi scores over Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal with 9 per cent, though it a huge gap between all and PM Modi.
Looking at the insights from the forecast, we have found that the- NDA/BJP has a stronghold on the electorate. NDA is seen gaining votes in all regions. Only state where the NDA has lost votes (& seats) significantly is Punjab where assembly elections are slated next year. That is made up by gains in East- in Assam and in Odisha. It seems to hold its position in Uttar Pradesh which is going to polls in 2017.
NDA seems to have regained ground it had lost to JDU/RJD/INC in Bihar last year. In South, BJP has gained votes and seats in Andhra and Karnataka. In West, BJP has gained votes but may still lose seats only because it had won such a high percentage of seats last time. Likewise, UPA is not gaining much in terms of seats though it may be gaining votes.
Thus if elections are held now, the composition of Lok Sabha is unlikely to change a great deal.
Key takeaways from the survey
Popularity of Modi: Modi remains most popular leader; much ahead of his compatriots in NDA as well as UPA.
Performance rating of Modi: 49% rate Modi’s performance as ‘Good’ or ‘Very Good’. 32% rate Modi’s performance as ‘Average’.
Performance rating of BJP lead NDA: About 36% rate NDA performance as ‘Good’ or ‘Very Good’. 33% rated performance of BJP lead NDA as ‘Average’.
Best Prime Minister so far: Modi seen as the best PM. He’s closely followed by Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Worst Prime Minister: Nearly 54% refused to answer this question. Among those who answered, majority rated Manmohan Singh as worst Prime Minister.
Mann ki Baat awareness and effectiveness: Good awareness for PM Modi’s initiative ‘Mann ki Baat’. Among those aware, majority felt that ‘Mann ki Baat’ has made visible positive impact on society.
‘Achhe Din’: People don’t believe that ‘ache din’ are here.
Nitish Kumar as replacement of Narendra Modi: According to the survey, Nitish Kumar is not seen to be replacing Narendra Modi in 2019 General Elections.
Policies/Schemes awareness among public: ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ and ‘Jan Dhan Yojna’ has registered mass popularity. ‘Skill India Mission’ registers low awareness (39%).
Performance of Modi-led NDA government in:
- Controlling Inflation: Mixed response.
- Business Friendliness: Mixed response
- Controlling Corruption: Mixed response
- Enhancing country’s image in world: Positive response
- Bringing back black money: Negative response
- Increasing employment opportunities: Mixed response
- Maintaining religious harmony: Mixed response
- Improving quality of life in cities/towns/villages: Mixed response.
- Perception of Cabinet Minister’s performance: Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitly and Suresh Prabhu stood out from remaining cabinet ministers on people’s perception related to their performance.
- Comparison between NDA & UPA: NDA outscores UPA on each of the following parameters-
- Is Less Corrupt
- Is more focused on solving problems of common man
- Is focused on improving the way government departments and ministries work
- Is more focused on issues of country’s Youth
- Is more focused on issues of villages and villagers
- Understands issues of farmers and farming community
- Is more focused on enhancing Nation’s image in world
- Is more focused on creating employment opportunities
- Has leaders who are concerned about nation’s development
Single most important challenge for Modi in next 1 year: Voters think that development of villages is the most important challenge for Modi in the next one year.
Drought: People are aware about drought situation in parts of country. People feel that Central govt. failed in predicting drought but also feel that it responded quickly. Opinion was split in two equal halves when asked if enough water available in their area.
‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’: Overwhelming majority felt that every Indian should say Bharat Mata ki Jai. But when asked if those who don’t say ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’ are not nationalists, majority either said they disagree or were not sure if that was the case.
Demand of Quota: People felt that quotas should be given on basis of economic status.
Increasing Intolerance in last 2 years: Majority disagreed to the notion that intolerance in country has risen in the last 2 years.
Anti-National activities in academic institution: About 50% claimed that they were not aware about anti national activities in academic institutions. Among those who were aware, people had mixed opinion about Modi’s handling of the situation.
Doubling of farmer’s income by 2022: Majority either did not believe or were not sure if farmer’s income could be doubled by 2022.
Agusta Westland corruption case: Majority were unaware about the corruption case. Among those who were aware, majority felt that Congress leaders had taken kickbacks in the chopper deal.