New Delhi: In a big blow to the Congress-led UPA ahead of the much-awaited Maharashtra Assembly elections, the ABP News-C Voter survey predicts a clear mandate for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA with as many 194 seats in the 288 member constituency. However, the survey also shows a rise in total number of seats for Congress-led alliance as it is expected to increase its total count from present 72 to 86 seats. Other parties in the state are expected to 8 assembly seats.

Looking at the numbers, the incumbent government in Maharashtra is expected to return to power with a voter share of 47 per cent. On the other hand, ABP News Opinion Poll shows 39 per cent vote share for Congress and its alliance while Other parties are likely to get a vote share of 14 per cent.

Polling for all 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra will be held on October 21 and counting of votes will take place on October 24. The state has over 8.9 crore eligible voters, of which the number of service voters stand at around 1.17 lakh. The main parties in the fray are the BJP, the Shiv Sena, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).


Flashback

In 2004, 2009 and 2014, the Assembly elections were conducted just after the Lok Sabha Polls whereas in 1999, they were held simultaneously. The voting patterns in each year were a near replica of the Lok Sabha results. If this factor holds true, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance - which was able to bag 41 of Maharashtra's 48 parliamentary seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha - will be a sure winner on October 24.

The Congress, on the other hand, is not only struggling with its serious internal conflicts among the senior leaders but is also in the midst of an acute leadership crisis. The upcoming assembly elections will be a litmus test for Congress as it will show how united the party really is in a state where it was in power for three straight terms before 2014.

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The NDA alliance is squaring off against the Congress-NCP combine in the crucial contest characterised by defections from the Opposition camp. The contest also has the undertone of the BJP battling for supremacy over the Sena, which considers itself as the "elder brother" in state politics.

In 2014 polls, the BJP and the Sena had contested separately and won 122 seats and 63 seats, respectively, out of the total 288. In the Lok Sabha elections held this summer for the total 48 seats, the BJP bagged 23 seats while the Sena emerged victorious in 18 constituencies, with vote shares of 27.59 per cent and 23.29 per cent, respectively.