ABP-CVoter Exit Poll Results: Tight Race In Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh Likely To Switch To Congress From BJP

ABP-CVoter Exit Poll Results: ABP-CVOTER Exit Poll offers a glimpse into the potential political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir as well as Ladakh.

ABP-CVoter Exit Poll Results: As the nation awaits the final verdict of the Lok Sabha elections, the ABP-CVOTER Exit Poll offers a glimpse into the potential political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir as well as Ladakh. Ahead of the final results of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 on June 4, ABP News in association with CVoter conducted Exit polls to find out how will the BJP-led NDA fair in the union territories against the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A.   

Jammu and Kashmir ABP-CVoter Exit Poll: Range Of Seats, Vote Share Percentage

The ABP News-CVoter Exit Polls for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 indicate a closely contested race in Jammu and Kashmir. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc is projected to secure 0-2 seats with a 32.8% vote share, the NDA is predicted to win 1-2 seats with a 32% vote share, and Others are expected to capture 2-3 seats with a 16% vote share.

Alliance	Range Of Seats (Total 5)	Vote Share Percentage
NDA	1-2	32%
I.N.D.I.A	0-2	32.8%
Others	2-3	35.2%

Jammu and Kashmir recorded its highest voter turnout in 35 years, with 58.46% of eligible voters casting their ballots across the Union Territory's five Lok Sabha seats. The Election Commission of India (ECI) hailed this as a significant achievement, reflecting the robust democratic spirit and civic engagement of the region's populace.

The three seats in the Kashmir Valley—Srinagar, Baramulla, and Anantnag-Rajouri—recorded voter turnouts of 38.49%, 59.1%, and 54.84% respectively, the highest in three decades. The two seats in the Jammu division, Udhampur and Jammu, saw turnouts of 68.27% and 72.22% respectively. The ECI also noted the growing involvement of young voters in the democratic process.

In Srinagar, the main contest is between Waheed Para of the PDP, who was previously detained under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, and Aga Ruhullah Mehdi of the NC, an influential Shia leader. Ashraf Mir of Apni Party is also competing but is not considered a strong contender. Baramulla saw a high-profile contest between former chief minister Omar Abdullah of the NC and Sajad Lone of the PC. In Anantnag-Rajouri, former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti faces Mian Altaf of the NC and Zaffar Iqbal Manhas of Apni Party.

In the Jammu division, Union Minister and BJP leader Jitendra Singh is up against Congress's Lal Singh, while MP Jugal Kishore Sharma seeks re-election against Congress candidate Raman Bhalla.

Ladakh ABP-CVoter Exit Poll: Range Of Seats, Vote Share Percentage

The Ladakh Lok Sabha seat, in its first election since becoming a Union Territory in 2019, recorded a 71.82% voter turnout on May 20. This election occurred amid protests in Leh and Kargil, with residents demanding statehood and inclusion in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution.

In what can be deemed as the impact of the recent protests, Ladakh is projected to go with the I.N.D.I.A. bloc instead of the BJP-led NDA.

Alliance	Range Of Seats (Total 1)
NDA	0
I.N.D.I.A	0-1
Others	-

Local dissatisfaction with the BJP arises from unfulfilled promises made during the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 Leh Hill Council elections.  The primary issues in Ladakh included statehood, job reservations, and the establishment of a separate public service commission. Despite geographical and religious differences, the region has united in its demands for these protections.

The main contenders in Ladakh are BJP's Tashi Gyalson, Congress's Tsering Namgyal, and independent candidate Mohammad Haneefa Jan.  

Ladakh has approximately 1.84 lakh voters, with around 96,000 in Kargil and over 88,000 in Leh.

DISCLAIMER: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.