India To Experience Above-Normal Monsoon This Year, Says IMD. Heatwave Forecast For Phase 1 & 2 Of Polling

India is going to witness above-normal monsoon this season, on the back of favourable La Nina conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

The India Meteorological Department's April 2024 predictions suggested that India is going to witness above-normal monsoon this season, on the back of favourable La Nina conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. This will result the cumulative rainfall to touch around 106 percent of long-period average of 87 cm, bringing cheer to farmers and policy-planenrs, IMD predicted on Monday.

In the press release, IMD said that "the monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%'. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm."

IMD has issued the operational long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages since 2003.

The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage updated forecast is issued by the end of May.

Currently, morderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equitorial Pacific region while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. 

"The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season," IMD stated in its press release.

The forecasts for monsoon season rainfall will be updated by IMD in the last week of May.

As per the IMD's press release, the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months was below normal. 

However, the director general of the IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated during a presser that "parts of northwest, east and northeast India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the season." 

The IMD chief stated there is a 29 percent chance of normal rainfall, 31 percent chance of above-normal rainfall and 30 percent chance of excess precipitation during the monsoon season this year, PTI reported.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 cm is considered 'normal'.Rainfall less than 90 percent of the long-period average is considered 'deficient', between 90 percent and 95 percent is 'below normal', between 105 percent and 110 percent is 'above normal' and more than 100 percent is 'excess' precipitation.

Heatwave Predicted In Various Parts Of India

Parts of India are already battling extreme heat and a significantly high number of heat wave days are expected in the April to June period, straining power grids and causing water shortages in various areas.

With summer knocking at the door with full force, IMD has forecasted a heatwave in various regions including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and North Goa.

Several regions in Maharashtra including Mumbai have been warned by the IMD for impending heat conditions. Heatwae warnings were issued for areas including Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, forecasted to experience temperatures ranging from 36-38 degrees Celsius.

Odisha is also likely to witness intense heat wave conditions starting from April 15 to April 19.

Telangana will also likely face heatwave conditions on April 17 and April 18 and the coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam too are anticipated to witness heat wave conditions from April 16 to April 18.

India To Vote In Extreme Heat Conditions 

With political workers and leaders already campaigning under the scorching heat ahead of the election polls, Indians will also likely be voting in extreme heat as the IMD has forecasted higher than average temperatures this year.

India will face almost double the number of heatwave days this summer as IMD has predicted that the heatwave period will last for a period of 10-20 days, against the usual four-eight days witnessed every season.

Out of the seven election phases, the first two phases, on April 19 and April 26, will be the ones to be effected by heat the most. People across 21 states including Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharahstra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and 102 constituencies will vote during the first phase on April 19. 

In March, the Election Commission of India had also shared an advisory after IMD predicted that India might experience above-normal temperatures during the summer season this year, leading to stronger and longer spells of heatwave from March-June, coinciding with the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. 

Above normal heat wave days are likely to prevail over many parts of the southern peninsula, some parts of east India and plains of northwest India, and adjoining northwest central India, IMD says. Thus constituencies spread across western, central, and north India will be casting their votes under the scorching heat.

During April-June the central and western peninsular parts are expected to face the worst impact of the extreme heat.