EAC-PM Paper: A new study has revealed significant shifts in the religious composition of populations across 167 countries between 1950 and 2015. In India, the share of majority Hindu population dipped by 7.82 percent, while that of the Muslim population saw a 43.15 percent increase in the corresponding period, according to a working paper released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).
The report said all religious minorities in India, barring Jains and Parsis, saw a rise in their population share in this period. "India has seen the second most significant decline in the majority population (7.82%), only next to Myanmar (10%) within the immediate South Asian neighbourhood", the EAC-PM noted, adding that minority populations substantially shrunk in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan.
The research, titled 'Share of Religious Minorities - A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)', was conducted by members of the EAC-PM, and highlights a global trend toward greater religious heterogeneity over the past 65 years. The paper, authored by Shamika Ravi, Apurv Kumar Mishra, and Abraham Jose, provides a critical examination of the shifts in religious demographics from 1950 to 2015 across the 167 countries, using the Religious Characteristics of States Dataset (RCS-Dem, 2017).
According to the study, in 1950, the average share of the majority religious group in these countries was 75 per cent. By 2015, this had fallen by approximately 22 per cent, indicating that societies globally are becoming more religiously diverse. This trend is most pronounced in Africa, where the majority religious denomination changed in more than half of the countries studied. For instance, countries that predominantly followed Animism in 1950 no longer do so, underscoring significant shifts in religious adherence.
Christian-majority countries have seen a general decline in their majority shares, with 77 out of 94 countries reporting a decrease. Conversely, Muslim-majority countries have mostly witnessed growth in their dominant religious groups.
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Populace In India And Neighbouring Nations
India has seen a decrease of 7.82 per cent in its majority Hindu population over the 65 years under review — dropping from 84.68 per cent in 1950 to 78.06 per cent in 2015. However, its Muslim-majority neighbours, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, have recorded increases in the population of the majority community.
In India, the proportion of the majority Hindu population declined by 7.82 per cent from 1950 to 2015, dropping from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent. Over the same period, the Muslim population share increased from 9.84 per cent to 14.09 per cent, marking a significant rise of 43.15 per cent. Christians also saw a slight increase from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent, reflecting a growth of 5.38 per cent. Sikhs experienced a rise from 1.24 per cent to 1.85 per cent, indicating a 6.58 per cent increase. The Buddhist population share notably increased from 0.05 per cent to 0.81 per cent.
| Country | Major Religion | Share Of Population in 1950 (%) | Share Of Population in 2015 (%) |
| India | Hinduism | 84.68 | 78.06 |
| Pakistan | Islam | 77.45 | 80.36 |
| Sri Lanka | Buddhism | 64.28 | 67.65 |
| Bangladesh | Islam | 74.24 | 88.02 |
| Nepal | Hinduism | 84.30 | 81.26 |
| China | Chinese Folk | 51.50 | 21.01 |
| Bhutan | Tibetan Buddhism | 71.44 | 84.07 |
| Afghanistan | Islam | 88.75 | 89.01 |
| Maldives | Islam | 99.83 | 98.36 |
The Jain population share, meanwhile, decreased from 0.45 per cent to 0.36 per cent. The Parsi community witnessed a substantial decline of 85 per cent, dipping from a 0.03 per cent share in 1950 to a mere 0.004 per cent in 2015.
The decline in the majority Hindu population marks India as a distinct case of increasing religious plurality within South Asia, a region otherwise marked by growing religious homogeneity, especially in Muslim-majority countries.
For context, neighbouring Bangladesh has seen an 18 per cent increase in its majority Muslim population, the largest rise in the subcontinent. Pakistan has also witnessed a 3.75 per cent increase in its majority Hanafi Muslim population since 1950, further highlighting the contrasting trends between India and its neighbours.
Across the Indian subcontinent, most Muslim-majority nations experienced a rise in the proportion of their dominant religious group, except for Maldives, where the prevalence of the majority faction, Shafi’i Sunnis, decreased by 1.47 per cent. According to the report, Muslim-majority Bangladesh saw the largest surge, with an 18 per cent increase in the dominance of its major religious group, marking a significant shift in the region. Pakistan observed a 3.75 per cent uptick in the dominance of Hanafi Muslims, alongside a 10 per cent rise in the overall Muslim populace, despite the partition that led to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
On the other hand, Myanmar, India, and Nepal, all non-Muslim majority nations, experienced a decline in the dominance of their major religious groups. Myanmar faced the most pronounced decrease, with the share of Theravada Buddhist adherents dropping by 10 per cent during the study period. In Nepal, the Hindu majority declined by 4 per cent, Buddhists decreased by 3 per cent, while Muslims saw a 2 per cent rise.
Sri Lanka and Bhutan, among the non-Muslim majority countries, were exceptions, witnessing an increase in the dominance of their major religious groups from 1950 to 2015. Sri Lanka saw a 5 per cent increase in Theravada Buddhist dominance, while Hindus, the next largest religious group, saw a 5 per cent decline. Bhutan experienced a notable rise of nearly 18 per cent in the dominance of Tibetan Buddhists, whereas the Hindu population dwindled from 23 per cent to 11 per cent during the same period.
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India's Conducive Environment Reflects In Growing Minority Populations: Paper
"India’s performance suggests that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society. It is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach," authors of the EAC-PM paper noted.
"India is one of the few countries which has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India," they added.
Citing Tibetan Buddhists who had to flee China six decades ago, Matuas who came from Bangladesh to escape religious persecution, and refugees from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, the paper points out that it is because of India's policies and institutions that minority populations from the neighbourhood came to this country when faced with duress. "Given its plural, liberal and democratic nature, India has continued its civilizational tradition of harbouring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades," the authors said.