The Opinion poll for Delhi Assembly Elections comes as a third consecutive jolt to the BJP after failing to form governments in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in 2019. The survey predicts that the saffron party is likely to clinch somewhere around 10 to 24 seats in the national capital. This, however, is a decent improvement for BJP in Delhi compared to the measly 3 seats it was able to pocket in 2015 Assembly Elections.
The Congress party, which drew a blank in the 2015 legislative elections in Delhi also appears to open its account this time around by winning seats in the range between 0-4 in the national capital.
As far as the vote share is concerned, the AAP is likely to get a whopping 45.6 per cent of votes, while the BJP is expected to pull around 37.1 per cent of votes. The Congress is expected to get only 4.4 per cent of the votes. The survey also reveals that other regional parties in fray may bag a vote share of 12.9 per cent.
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The Shaheen Bagh effect
ABP News and C-Voter survey also spoke to Delhiites on other key factors that might affect the Assembly polls including the hotbed issue of Shaheen Bagh where thousands of protesters are sitting on a month-long agitation against the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC).
When asked about the Shaheen Bagh issue, 62 per cent of participants said that sit-in protest was wrong while 27 per cent found it legit. 11 per cent said they would not want to comment on the issue.
39 per cent of the respondents feel BJP will benefit from the Shaheen Bagh protest, whereas 25 per cent say it will favour AAP. 4 per cent people said that the sit-in protest in Shaheen Bagh will favour Congress party while 10 per cent said it's going to benefit none.
Modi-Shah massive rallies
61 per cent people feel that PM Modi's aggressive rallies in the national capital days ahead of Assembly polls will help BJP find lost ground while 29 per cent that it will not change the mood of the people. 10 per cent respondents refrained from commenting.
Likewise, the national capital also witnessed some hard-hitting political rallies of Union Minister Amit Shah. When asked about it, 53 per cent people feel it will help BJP in some manner, whereas 36 per cent say it will have no effect. 11 per cent people chose not to comment.
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Personal attacks on Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal
The election campaign by the BJP leaders and star campaigners such as Anurag Thakur, Parvesh Verma and others invoked some harsh criticism for the ruling party including personal remarks on Arvind Kejriwal. When asked about if these personal remarks against Delhi CM will dent BJP's prospect in Delhi elections, 48 per cent respondents said Yes!
24 per cent people said these remarks will not affect the image of the saffron party. 4 per cent said there was no dent to any party due to such remarks whereas 24 per cent chose not to comment.
What happened in the 2015 polls?
The AAP had clinched 67 seats recording a massive win in 2015 assembly polls, while the BJP could get only three seats despite the ‘Modi wave’ prevalent at that time. The Congress failed to win even a single seat.
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Election dates:
As per the Election Commission of India, polling will be held in Delhi on February 8 and counting of votes will be conducted on February 11. A total of over 1.47 crore voters can exercise their franchise, according to the final electoral list for Delhi published earlier in the day.
While, the BJP has accused the AAP and Congress parties of raising anarchy in the national capital referring to the anti-CAA protests, the Congress has announced that if voted to power it would not allow the CAA, the NPR and the NRC in Delhi.
ABP News along with C Voter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters ahead of the decisive polls in the national capital. The survey was conducted in between last week of January and first week of February with a total sample size of 11,188 participants.