New Delhi: Cyclone Biparjoy has intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and will intensify even further in the next 48 hours, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. According to IMD, the cyclone will move towards northwest India during the next three days.
The IMD also predicted a "mild" monsoon onset over Kerala and "weak" progress beyond the southern peninsula under its influence. The MeT office said conditions are favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala within two days.
Meteorologists, however, said the cyclone has been impacting the intensity of the monsoon and the onset over Kerala would be "mild".
Forecasting agencies said the storm has been undergoing "rapid intensification", escalating from just a cyclonic circulation to a very severe cyclonic storm in just 48 hours, defying earlier predictions.
Atmospheric conditions and cloud mass indicate that the system is likely to sustain the strength of a very severe cyclone till June 12.
According to a study 'Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean', the frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased by about 20 per cent in the post-monsoon period and 40 per cent in the pre-monsoon period.
There has been a 52 per cent increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while very severe cyclones have increased by 150 per cent.
"The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is tightly linked to the rising ocean temperatures and increased availability of moisture under global warming. The Arabian Sea used to be cool, but now it is a warm pool," Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said.
"The oceans have become warmer already on account of climate change. In fact, a recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed up by almost 1.2 degrees Celsius since March, thus conditions are very much favourable for the rapid intensification of the system (Cyclone Bipajoy) so it has potential to sustain the strength for a longer period," Raghu Murtugudde, Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay, said.