Mumbai: With around 80% of the population in Maharashtra capital Mumbai possibly been exposed to Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 virus, a projection by Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) scientists suggests the third wave’s peak is unlikely to be as large as the second wave.
TIFR’s School of Technology and Computer Science Dean Dr. Sandeep Juneja, who is the study’s lead author, said the “reinfections will hold the key in the third wave”.
Mumbai registered 90 fatalities during the second wave peak earlier on May 1.
Stating that keeping an eye on reinfections would help the civic authorities catch the trend early, Dr. Juneja said it would help check the third wave if the 20% of people in Mumbai who haven't caught Covid yet are vaccinated soon.
“We also consider a somewhat pessimistic scenario where reinfections are significant (amongst the 80% recovered, 10% are amenable to infections, and if infected, will follow the same disease progression as the first time infected), or a new variant that is 50% more infectious and 50% more virulent than the Delta variant,” the scientists said.
The other factors that could affect the Covid third wave would be the vaccine’s poor effectiveness or opening up the city at 60% level but low compliance to Covid-appropriate behaviour.
Dr Juneja said, “despite these negative things, the resulting peak is seen to be no larger than that under the second wave”.
The Covid third wave would be barely noticeable by September if four factors – reinfections are mild; there are no new dangerous variants, vaccination coverage is extensive in June, July, and August; and the vaccine is 75-95% effective – align.
Mumbai's peak during the second wave was lower because of higher levels of previous exposure to the virus as compared to Delhi and Bengaluru, the study said.