The survey found in the 117-member Assembly, the BJP-SAD alliance seems to have an edge over rival parties with 50-58 seats, a few short of a simple majority. The Congress, which is likely to bag 41-49 seats, giving a tough competition to the alliance. AAP, which has high hopes from Punjab, is wining 12-18 seats to be at a distant third position.
When asked to indicate who they would vote for if elections were held the very next day, a plurality of voters (34 percent) indicated SAD-BJP as their preference. The Congress was the vote choice of 31 percent respondents and the AAP of 21 percent. Other smaller parties were preferred by 14 percent respondents.
The survey found the SAD-BJP combine to be leading in two out of three regions of the state. In Malwa, the largest region of the state, SAD+ leads with 33 percent of the vote followed by the Congress at 28 percent and AAP+ closely behind at 26 percent.
In Majha and Doaba, meanwhile, the survey found the competition to be essentially a two-horse race with AAP being a distant third. In Majha, the Congress narrowly leads the Akali-BJP combine by three points as of now. In Doaba, however, it trails them by four points.
The survey found AAP to be netting 17 percent votes in Doaba and just 10 percent in Majha. Even as the AAP may not be doing all that well in these two regions, the small but significant share of votes secured by it may well eventually determine who finishes on top here – the Congress or the Akalis. In both Majha and Doaba, particularly the former, a large proportion of voters saw the AAP as being a spoiler rather than a strong contender.
The survey also found that 85 percent respondents considered the drug addiction problem to be a very serious issue. Interestingly, the AAP has been unable to make inroads among such people despite its strong campaign about the drug menace. Two-thirds of the 85 percent who saw the drug addiction problem as being very serious were found to splitting their votes almost evenly between Congress and SAD-BJP.
The Congress, meanwhile, is perceived as being better than other parties when it comes to solving the drug menace. The grand old party was the choice of 25 percent of respondents when it came to solving the problem of drugs followed by AAP at 17 percent and SAD-BJP at 14 percent.
The survey found Amarinder Singh to be the most spontaneous preference of voters for the post of chief minister. In response to an unprompted question on chief ministerial choice, 29 percent of the respondents took the Congress leader’s name. The current chief minister Prakash Singh Badal was the spontaneous choice of 20 percent respondents followed by AAP’s Bhagwant Mann at 8 percent and Arvind Kejriwal at 4 percent.
The survey found 43% of the voters see the AAP as being a spoiler rather than a strong contender while 34% belived Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is a strong contender in Punjab and can possibly win the elections. According to the survey, while a majority of voters of all three main political players are committed to voting for their respective parties come Election Day; it is AAP voters who are most likely to change their vote. About 25 percent of AAP voters said that their vote might change and that they may end up voting for someone else on voting day.
On the question of Navjot Singh Siddhu’s decision to join Congress, the survey found, 24 per cent of Punjab voters agreed with his choice while 20 percent said his decision was wrong.
When asked what would matter more to them while voting in the upcoming assembly election – party, local candidate or a chief ministerial candidate, only 8 percent respondants said a ‘CM candidate’ would be their main consideration. However, majority of Punjab voters agreed with the proposition that Punjab CM must be from Punjab.
