After the three-phased elections, Bihar is anticipating the results which are to be declared on November 10th. Amid the Coronavirus pandemic, the state witnessed one of the biggest elections post lockdown in the country. As per the exit polls, it is expected that Tejaswi Yadav led Mahagahthbandhan may have an edge over the consecutive three-time Chief Minister led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It can also be predicted that Bihar may witness a hung assembly as no parties reach the required number.

According to the post-poll tracker, National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to win seats in the range between 104-128 in the 243-member assembly while the Mahagahtbandhan is tipped to win 108-131 seats. ALSO READ|Bihar Elections 2020: Tejashwi Yadav Turns 31, Will Be The Youngest CM Of A State If He Dislodges Nitish Tomorrow

As per the opinion poll prediction, the upcoming results may be a tough ride for Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal-United (JDU) chief Nitish Kumar. The consecutive three-time CM of the state recently announced his retirement, terming the current state assembly elections his last.

According to ABP-C Voter Survey, Janta Dal-United-led by Nitish is bagging 38-46 seats, while the party retains 67 seats currently. Meanwhile, his ally in state Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) may get around 66-74 seats bagging a massive rise as currently, the party has 53 seats in the current assembly.

Also Read|What Will People In Bihar Remember The Three Time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar For?

According to some political experts, the outcome of the 2020 Bihar Assembly election will be determined by factors such as industrialisation, employment creation, infrastructure development, migration and inclusive growth.

Nitish Kumar has been part of the NDA since 2005 when he ousted the long-serving RJD’s government. Though he held hands with his arch-rivals in 2015, the friendship only lasted for 15 months after he returned back with NDA.

This time there are some major factors that are playing against Nitish Kumar:

Migrant Crisis:

The immediate ones which include the migrant crisis, after the central government imposed nationwide lockdown in order to contain the spread of Covid-19 disease, a large number of migrant workers walked their way back to home in Bihar, upon arrival a lot of them weren’t allowed to enter the state initially. And the state government’s failure to do anything for their welfare by announcing a substantial economic package or creating a blueprint for gainful employment.

Coronavirus

Another reason that may add up against the three-time CM, the state’s poor management of the coronavirus pandemic. While the COVID-19 crisis was at an all-time high, the Bihar administration replaced the Principal Secretary (Health), Sanjay Kumar, who was known for regularly updating the public on the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the State. Since then, confusion has prevailed over the numbers. On August 3, in the State Assembly, Bihar’s Health Minister Mangal Pandey said that of the total of 6.12 lakh tests carried out for COVID-19 in the State till August 1, 3.24 lakh had been carried out through RT-PCR. However, contradicting this, the Chief Minister stated that less than 10% of the tests are being done through RT-PCR

Bihar floods created havoc

As a flood-prone state, while the COVID-19 crisis was booming the state suffered another hit of floods. According to the State Disaster Management Department, this year’s flood swamped 1,232 panchayats across 16 districts of the State. About 70 lakh people were affected, and 24 died.

As Kumar is leading the NDA in Bihar, his inability to get the “special state” status from the Central government which attracts special development packages and investments for the industrial investments. ALSO READ|As ABP Exit Poll Predicts Razor's Edge Fight In Bihar Elections, Here's How The State Voted In 2015

Unemployment in Bihar

According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), in June 2020, Bihar’s unemployment rate was nearly double the national average in the year ending June 2019. Earlier, another CMIE report stated that Bihar’s unemployment rate increased by 31.2 percentage points in April 2020, rising up to 46.6%. Unemployment had risen from 1.6% in April 2017 to the current rate.  Added the anti-incumbency factor, may lead  Nitish Kumar to step down from his office.

Bihar Polls were conducted in three phases and the results will be announced on 10th November, though Exit Polls have projected Tejashwi Yadav as the future CM, NDA has clearly stated that Nitish Kumar will emerge victorious.